Regionalización de escenarios climáticos para la evaluación del riesgo de incendiosdesarrollo y aplicaciones

  1. Bedia Jiménez, Joaquín
Supervised by:
  1. José Manuel Gutiérrez Llorente Director

Defence university: Universidad de Cantabria

Fecha de defensa: 02 December 2015

Committee:
  1. José Manuel Moreno Rodríguez Chair
  2. Jesús Fernández Fernández Secretary
  3. Christos Giannakopoulos Committee member

Type: Thesis

Teseo: 397927 DIALNET lock_openUCrea editor

Abstract

From a climatic standpoint, fire danger can be defined as the descriptor resultant after the integration of the main atmospheric variables most directly involved in the ignition, propagation and difficulty of suppression of a forest fire. One of the most popular fire danger indicators worldwide is the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). This PhD Thesis is focused on the generation of future FWI (and other FWI-derived indicators) scenarios at different spatial scales, building upon different future climate projections and downscaling techniques. The relationship between fire danger and burned area is analyzed at a global scale in order to identify the most sensitive areas to climate change. Several key methodological aspects, insufficiently analyzed in previous studies, are addressed such as the time resolution of input variables, the use of adequate statistical downscaling techniques and the advantages and limitations of using numerical model simulations for the generation of FWI scenarios.