Análisis de sistemas dinámicos y complejos en la liga profesional de balonmano de españa

Resum

The purpose of this thesis was to investigate the offensive performance of eli-te handball teams when considering handball as a complex non-linear dynamical system. The time-dependent dynamic approach was adopted to assess teams’ per-formance during the game. The overall sample comprised the 240 games played in the season 2011-2012 of men’s ASOBAL League. In the subsequent analyses, only close games (final goal-difference ≤ 5; n = 142) were considered. Match status, game location, quality of opposition, and game period situational variables were incorporated into the analysis. Three studies composed the core of the thesis. In the first study, we analyzed the game-scoring coordination between the time series representing the scoring processes of the two opposing teams throughout the game. Autocorrelation, cross-correlation, double moving average, and Hilbert transform were used for analysis. The scoring processes of the teams presented a high consis-tency across all the games as well as strong in-phase modes of coordination in all the game contexts. The only differences were found when controlling for the game period. The coordination in the scoring processes of the teams was significantly lower for the 1st and 2nd period, showing a clear increasing coordination behavior as the game progressed. This suggests that the first 20 minutes are those that break the game-scoring. In the second study, we analyzed the temporal effects (immedia-te effect, short-term effect, and medium-term effect) of team timeouts on teams’ scoring performance. Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed scoring increments for the periods within the first, third and fifth timeout ball possessions for the teams that requested the timeout. Conversely, significant negative effects on goals scored were found for the opponent teams, with scoring decrements for the same game periods. The influence of situational variables on the scoring performance was only registered in certain game periods. Finally, in the third study, we analyzed the players’ exclusions temporal effects on teams’ scoring performance, for the teams that suffer the exclusion (numerical in-feriority) and for the opponents (numerical superiority). Multiple linear regression models were used for the analysis. The results showed significant negative effects on the number of goals scored for the teams with one less player for the periods within the previous and post one, two, three, four and five minutes of play. For the opponent teams, the results showed positive effects, with increments of the same magnitude in the same game periods. This trend was not affected by match status, game location, quality of opposition, or game period. The scoring increments were smaller than might be expected from a 2-minute numerical playing superiority. Psychological theories such as choking under pressure situations where good per-formance is expected could contribute to explain this finding.