Modelización estocástica y generación de escenarios para gestión de desastres

Résumé

Uncertainty in decision problems poses two major challenges: the treatment of uncertainty incorporating it into a decision model, and its characterisation, usually through scenarios. This dissertation addresses both problems as applied to disaster management in the pre-disaster phases (prevention and preparedness). The spatial component of these phenomena is also considered, which leads to a substantial increase in its difficulty. The study of stochastic modelling and scenario generation will focus on two different contexts, natural disasters in developing countries and wildfires...