Modelo epidemiológico de difusión de la influenza aviar altamente patógena (IAAP)

Resum

The aim of this thesis is to identify which areas present a higher risk of spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) in Spain and to evaluate the consequences that this diffusion would involve, to contribute to the improvement surveillance and control plans against the disease, both wild and domesticated birds. To this aim, it has been developed a diffusion model of HPAI highly adapted to the structural characteristics of our poultry sector, which includes two different stages, the industrial poultry farming of chickens, and backyard poultry combined with no-chicken poultry farm wich including several avian species. The model comprises a first part in each scene in which different zones have been identified according to the risk of diffusion, based on information available from poultry farms, their location and their risk factors. Within the industrial poultry farming of chickens, it has been made a second part consisting of a dynamic stochastic model to simulate an epidemic of HPAI. It has been used as a territorial model the region of Castilla-Leon (CyL), which has been selected not only for being the reflect of the Spanish poultry’s situation, but because in some of its provinces it has been identified high risk introduction areas of HPAI in wild birds and live poultry trade. (Martínez et al., 2008; Martínez et al., 2009, Sánchez-Vizcaíno et al., 2010; Iglesias et al., 2010a).