La transición energética en China

Abstract

Since the beginning of the 1990s, and especially since the beginning of the current century, the Chinese energy system has been undergoing deep changes. In this work we analyze, first, the features of China’s energy transition, highlighting (four) continuities and (seven) departures in relation to traditional structures. Second, we analyze the influence exerted over changes in the energy system by three major shifts in the Chinese economy during its current development phase: strong growth and the transformation of industrial specialization; transportation expansion; and new social patterns emerging from urbanization and new consumption habits. This analytical base allows us to formulate the hypothesis that, under the (realistic) assumption that these three development factors will prevail in the next decade, they will remain the main determinants of the energy transition. Finally, studying the five major dilemmas faced by China’s energy transition brings us to the conclusion that the most likely scenario will be a continuation of China’s current energy transition trends.