Estimación de los beneficiarios de prestaciones de dependencia en España y del gasto asociado a su atención, 2007-2045

Abstract

This paper tries to provide estimates of dependents for each grade and for the period 2007-2045 and the cost associated with its attention on the System for Autonomy and Care Unit (SAAD). To that end, using data from the Disabilities, Independence and Dependency Situations Survey (EDAD-2008) and the scale for the assessment of grades and levels of dependency (BVD), we apply a two-stage estimation procedure for the projections of dependents. In the first stage, we calculate the probability that a person is dependent entitled to benefits or not using a logit model. In the second stage, using an ordered logit model, we calculate the probability that a person, being dependent entitled to benefits, present a certain level and degree of dependence. Subsequently, we offer expenditure projections based on from average cost per point scale by grade and level of dependency. Our results suggest a higher incidence of situations of dependency in female beneficiaries than in male beneficiaries, with growth rates between 2007 and 2045 higher for almost all categories of grade and level. We estimate that in 2045 there will be 1,592,798 beneficiaries of the SAAD (596,332 men and 996,466 women). Moreover, between 2007 and 2045 the cost of care for dependent people will be multiplied by 2.64 for male beneficiaries and by 2.89 for female beneficiaries, amounting in 2045 to 41,926 million euros.