Value for moneyTo what extent does discount rate matter?
-
1
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
info
ISSN: 1133-455X
Año de publicación: 2014
Volumen: 22
Número: 66
Páginas: 93-112
Tipo: Artículo
Otras publicaciones en: Revista de economía aplicada
Resumen
El presente artículo propone una prueba de VFM para evaluar si es apropiado el uso de colaboraciones público-privadas, y realiza un análisis numérico para comprobar hasta qué punto los resultados se ven influidos por las tasas de descuento utilizadas. La prueba se aplica a dos tipos de proyectos de infraestructuras que se diferencian esencialmente en el plazo de la concesión y la intensidad de capital. Los resultados indican que cuánto más alta es la tasa de descuento utilizada mayor es la ventaja de utilizar un esquema PPP como método de provisión. Esta conclusión es más visible en el caso de proyectos con mayor plazo concesional. Además, usar tasas de descuento idénticas para analizar proyectos con perfil muy diferente parece ser inadecuado
Referencias bibliográficas
- Arrow, K. and Lind, R.C. (1970): “Uncertainty and the Evaluation of Public Investment Decisions”, American Economic Review, vol. 60, pp. 364-78.
- Azfar, O. (1999): “Rationalizing hyperbolic discounting”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, vol. 38(2), pp. 245-252.
- Bain, R. (2010): “Public sector comparators for UK PFI roads: Inside the black box”, Transportation, vol. 37, pp. 447-471.
- Baumol, W. (1968): “On the Social of Discount”, American Economics Review, vol. 58, pp. 788-802.
- Bomardman, A.E. and Greenberg, D.H. (1998): “Discounting and the Social Discount Rate,” in Thompson, F & Green, M.T. (Eds.), Handbook of Public Finance, N.Y: Marcel Dekker, Inc., pp. 269-318.
- Broadbent, J., Gill, J. and Laughlin, R. (2003): “Evaluating the Private Finance Initiative in the National Health Service in the UK”, Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, vol. 16(3), pp. 422-45.
- Broome, J. (1994): “Discounting the Future”, Philosophy & Public Affairs, vol. 23(2), pp. 128-56.
- Caplin, A. and Leahy, J. (2004): “The Social Discount Rate”, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 112, pp. 1257-68.
- Cowen, T. (2008): “Social Discount Rate” in Durlauf S. and Blume, L. (Eds.), The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2nd edition. London: Palgrave MacMillan.
- Dasgupta, P., Mäler, K.G. and Barret, S. (1999): “Intergenerational Equity, Social Discount Rates, and Global Warming”, in Portney, P.R. & Weyant, J.P. (Eds.), Discounting and Intergenerational Equity, Washington, D.C: Resources for the Future, pp. 51-78.
- Drèze, J. and Stern, N. (1990): “Policy reform, shadow prices, and market prices”, Journal of Public Economics, vol. 42(1), pp. 1-45.
- Dybvig, P.J., Ingersoll, Jr., J. and Ross, S. (1996): “Long forward and zero-coupon rates can never fall”, Journal of Business, vol. 60, pp. 1-25.
- Edwards, P. and Shaoul, J. (2003): “Partnerships: for better or worse?”, Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal, vol. 16(3), pp. 397-421.
- English, L.M. and Guthrie, J. (2003): “Driving privately financed projects in Australia: What makes them tick?”, Accounting, Auditing and Accountability Journal, vol. 16(3), pp. 493-511.
- European Commission (2002): “EC guide to cost-benefit analysis” Appendix B.2, pp. 104-105.
- Evans, D.J and Sezer, H. (2005): “Social discount rates for member countries of the European Union”, Journal of Economic Studies, vol. 32 (1), pp. 47-59.
- Evans, D.J. (2006): “Social Discount rates for the European Union”, Fifth Milan European Economy Workshop, Working Paper 2006-20.
- Feldstein, M. S. (1964): “The Social Time Preference Discount Rate in Cost Benefit Analysis”, Economic Journal, vol. 74, pp. 360-79.
- Frederick, S. Loewenstein, G. and O donoghue, T. (2002): “Time discounting and time preference: A critical review”, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 40, pp. 351-401.
- Froud, J. and Shaoul J. (2001): “Appraising and evaluating PFI for NHS Hospitals”, Financial Accountability and Management, vol. 17(3), pp. 247-70.
- Ginsburgh, V. and Keyzer, M. (1997): “The structure of Applied General Equilibrium Models”, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
- Gollier, C. (2002): “Time Horizon and the Discount Rate”, Journal of Economic Theory, vol. 107(2), pp. 463-73.
- Gollier, C. (2004): “The economics of risk and time”, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
- Grimsey, D. and Lewis, M.K. (2002): “Evaluating the risks of public private partnerships for infrastructure projects”, International Journal of Project Management, vol. 20, pp. 107-118.
- Grimsey, D. and Lewis, M.K. (2004): “Discount debates: Rates, risk, uncertainty and value for money in PPPs”, Public Infrastructure Bulletin, vol. 3, pp. 4-7.
- Groom, B., Hepburn, C., Koundouri, P. and Pearce, D.W. (2005) “Declining Discount Rates: The Long and the Short of it”, Environmental & Resource Economics, vol. 32, pp. 445-93.
- Grout, P.A. (1997): “Value-for-money measurement in public-private partnerships”, European Investment Bank Papers, vol. 10 (2).
- Grout, P.A. (2003): “Public and private sector discount rates in public private partnerships”, Economic Journal, vol. 113 (486), pp. C62-C68.
- Harberger, A.C. (1972): “Project Evaluation”, Macmillan, London.
- HM Treasury (2003): “The Green Book – Appraisal and evaluation in central government”, London: TSO.
- Heald, D. (2003): “Value for money tests and accounting treatment in PFI schemes”, Accounting, Auditing & Accountability Journal, vol. 16(3), pp. 342-71.
- Henderson, N. and Bateman, I. (1995): “Empirical and public choice evidence for hyperbolic social discount rates and the implications for intergenerational discounting”, Environmental and Resource Economics, vol. 5(4), pp. 413-23.
- Hirshleifer, J. (1964): “Efficient Allocation of Capital in an Uncertain World”, American Economic Review, vol. 54 (3), Papers and Proceedings of the Seventy-sixth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association, pp. 77-85.
- Hirshleifer, J. (1966) “Investment Decision under Uncertainty: Applications of the State- Preference Approach”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 80 (2), pp. 252-77.
- Kirk, R.J. and Wall, A.P. (2002): “The Private Finance Initiative: Has the Accounting Standard Board Reduced the Scheme s Value for Money?”, Public Management Review, vol. 4.4, pp. 529-47.
- Kula, E. (1985): “An Empirical Investigation on the Social Time Preference Rate for United Kingdom”, Environment and Planning, vol. 17, pp. 199-212.
- Kula, E. (1987): “Social Interest Rates for Public Sector Appraisal in the United Kingdom, the United States and Canada”, Project Appraisal, vol. 2, 3, pp. 169-74.
- Lopez, H. (2008): “The Social Discount Rate: Estimates for Nine Latin American Countries”, Policy Research Working Paper 4639.
- Loewenstein, G. and Prelec, D. (1992) “Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 107(2), pp. 573-97.
- Moore, M.A., Boardmanman, A.E., Vining, A.R., Weimer, D. and Greenberg, D.H. (2004): “Just Give Me a Number!: Practical Values for the Social Discount Rate,” Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, vol. 23(4), pp. 789-812.
- Newbery, D. (1992): “The Long Term Discount Rates for the Forest Enterprise”, Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge University, mimeo.
- OXERA (2002): “A Social Time Preference Rate for Use in Long-Term Discounting”, Report for the Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, Department for Transport, and Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Oxford Economic Research Associates, Ltd., Oxford, UK.
- Pearce, D. and Ulph, D. (1995): “A social discount rate for the United Kingdom”, CSERGE Working Paper GEC 95-01.
- Pearce, D. and Ulph, D. (1999): “A social discount rate for the UK”, in Pearce, D.W. (Ed), Economics and the Environment: Essays on Ecological Economics and Sustainable Development, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, pp. 268-85.
- Ramsey, F.P. (1928): “A Mathematical Theory of Saving”, Economic Journal, vol. 38, pp. 543-59.
- Samuelson, P.A. (1964): “Principle of Efficiency: Discussions”, American Economic Review, vol. 54, 93-6.
- Sandmo, A. and Drèze, J.H. (1971): “Discount Rates for Public Investment in Closed and Open Economies”, Economica New Series, vol. 38 (152), pp. 395-412.
- Scott, M.F.G. (1977): “The Test Rate of Discount and Changes in Base-Level Income in the United Kingdom”, Economic Journal, vol. 87 (346), pp. 219-41.
- Scott, M.F.G. (1989): “A new view of economic growth”, Oxford, Clarendon Press.
- Sen, K. (1967): “Isolation, Assurance and the Social Rate of Discount”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 81, pp. 112-24.
- Shaoul, J. (2005) “A critical financial analysis of the private finance initiative: Selecting a financing method or reallocating economic wealth?” Critical Perspectives on Accounting, vol. 16, pp. 441-471.
- Shoven, J.B. and Whalley, J (1984): “Applied General Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An introduction and survey”, Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 2(3), pp. 1007-31.
- Sozou, P.D. (1998): “On hyperbolic discounting and uncertain hazard rates”, Proceeding of Royal Society of London, vol. 265 (1409), pp. 2015-20.
- Spackman, M. (1991): “Discount Rates and Rates of Return in the Public Sector: Economic Issues”, Government Economic Service Working Paper No. 112 (Treasury Working Paper No. 58).
- Spackman, M. (2004): “Time discounting and of the cost of capital in government”, Fiscal Studies, vol. 25, pp. 467-518.
- Vickrey, W. (1964): “Principle of Efficiency: Discussions”, American Economic Review, vol. 54, pp. 88-92.
- Weitzman, M.L. (1998): “Why the Far-Distant Future Should Be Discounted at Its Lowest Possible Rate”, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 36, pp. 201-8.