Evaluación del riesgo de propagación de epidemias ganaderas mediante simulación matemática
- Eduardo Fernández Carrión 1
- Beatriz Martínez López 2
- Benjamín Ivorra 1
- Ángel Manuel Ramos 1
- José Manuel Sánchez Vizcaíno 1
- 1 Universidad Complutense de Madrid (España)
- 2 School of Veterinary Medicine, UC Davis, USA
ISSN: 2174-0410
Ano de publicación: 2018
Volume: 8
Número: 2
Tipo: Artigo
Outras publicacións en: Pensamiento Matemático
Resumo
Be-FAST is a computer program based on a time-spatial stochastic spread mathemati-cal model for studying the transmission of infectious livestock diseases within and between farms. Through Monte Carlo methods, different scenarios are generated for disease risk of spread analysis. Livestock epidemics are financially severe damaging in the swine industry worldwide. The program can support epidemiological studies to identify areas at greatest risk and the most important routes of diffusion between farms, to evaluate and optimize the efficiency of control measures and to estimate the health and economic impacts of each sce-nario. Be-FAST is used here to analyze two diseases that directly affect the livestock industry: classical swine fever in Bulgaria, and foot-and-mouth disease in Peru.