El "dividendo de la paz"Defensa, economía y gasto social en la España de la segunda mitad del siglo XX

  1. José Jurado Sánchez 1
  1. 1 Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

Revue:
Investigaciones de Historia Económica = Economic History Research

ISSN: 1698-6989

Année de publication: 2018

Volumen: 14

Número: 2

Pages: 118-126

Type: Article

DOI: 10.1016/J.IHE.2016.07.018 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAccès ouvert editor

D'autres publications dans: Investigaciones de Historia Económica = Economic History Research

Résumé

An attempt is made to determine whether the reduction of military spending in the second half of the twentieth century in Spain generated economic and social benefits like those in other countries. For this aim, a series of constant prices has been constructed using the GDP, GFCF, budget balance, national debt, military spending, education spending, health spending and the other main social sector expenditures. The comparison of these series show that a peace dividend existed, particularly from the establishment of democracy onwards. Between 1950-1975 and 1976-2000 periods, military costs (defence spending as percentage of GDP) declined by a factor of 4, while social sector expenditures, especially health and education, increased by a factor of 3.

Références bibliographiques

  • Aguilar Olivencia, M., El ejército español durante el franquismo: un juicio desde dentro (1999), Akal Madrid
  • Akitoby, B., Clements, B., Gupta, S., Inchauste, G., Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's Law in developing countries (2006) European Journal of Political Economy, 22, pp. 908-924
  • Aschauer, D.A., Is public expenditure productive? (1989) Journal of Monetary Economics, 24, pp. 171-188
  • Baran, P.A., Sweezy, P.M., Monopoly capital (1966), Monthly Review Press Nueva York
  • Bhargava, A., Jamison, D.T., Lau, L.J., Murray, C.J., Modelling the effects of health on economic growth (2001) Journal of Health Economics, 20, pp. 423-440
  • Barro, R.J., Government Spending in a simple model of endogenous growth (1990) Journal of Political Economy, 5, pp. S103-S125
  • Barro, R.J., Redlick, C.J., Macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes (2011) Quaterly Journal of Economics, 126 (1), pp. 51-102
  • Brauer, J., Webster, L.L., Galbraith, J.K., (2004) The evolving economics of war and peace, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), , http://www.eolss.net, Eolss Publishers, UNESCO París [consultado 2 Oct 2015] Disponible en:]
  • Brauner, J., Military spending and democracy (2015) Defence and Peace Economics, 26-4, pp. 409-423
  • Brömmelhörster, J., El dividendo de la paz: ¿qué abarcaría este concepto? (1997) Cuadernos Bakeaz, 21
  • Camps, E., The impact of investment in education on economic development: Spain in comparative perspective, 1860-2000 (2013), pp. 1-19. , Pompeu Fabra University Working Papers 1373
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch, N.P., Bjerkholt, O., Military spending and economic growth in the OECD countries (1984) Journal of Peace Research, 21, pp. 361-373
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch, N.P., Bjerkholt, O., Guns, butter, and growth: The case of Norway (1992) Defense, welfare, and growth, pp. 61-80. , S. Chan A. Mintz Perspectives and Evidence Routledge, Londres y Nueva York
  • Caputo, D., New perspectives on the public policy implications of defense and welfare expenditures (1975) Policy Science, 6, pp. 423-446
  • Carreras, A., Prados, L., Rosés, J.R., Renta y riqueza (2005) Estadísticas históricas de España, siglos XIX-XX., , A. Carreras X. Tafunell Fundación BBVA Bilbao
  • Clayton, J.L., The fiscal limits of the warfare-welfare state: Defense and welfare spending in the United States since 1900 (1976) Western Political Quaterly, 29, pp. 364-383
  • Comín, F., Díaz, D., Renta y riqueza (2005) Estadísticas históricas de España, siglos XIX-XX, pp. 873-964. , A. Carreras X. Tafunell Fundación BBVA Bilbao
  • Ministerio de Hacienda (2000), IGAE Madrid
  • Currais, L., Rivera, B., Income variation and health expenditure: Evidence for OECD countries (1999) Review of Development Economics, 3 (3), pp. 258-267
  • Chan, S., Military expenditures and economic performance (1987) World military expenditures and arms transfers, , U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency Washington
  • Chan, S., Mintz, A., (1992) Defense, welfare, and growth, , Routledge Londres
  • Deger, S., Sen, S., Military expenditure, spin-off and economic development (1983) Journal of Development Economics, 13 (1983), pp. 67-83
  • De Grasse, R.W., Mcguinness, E., Ragen, W., Military expansion, economic decline (1983), Council on Economic Priorities Nueva York
  • De la Fuente, A., Doménech, R., El nivel educativo de la población en España y sus regiones: 1960-2011 (2015), BBVA Research [Documento de trabajo 15/07]
  • Díaz-Fuentes, D., Revuelta, J., La relación a largo plazo entre crecimiento económico y gasto público en España (1850-2000) (2013) Investigaciones de Historia Económica, 9, pp. 32-42
  • Domke, W., Eichenberg, R., Kelleher, C., The illusion of choice: Defense and welfare in advanced industrial democracies, 1948-1978 (1983) American Political Science Review, 77, pp. 19-34
  • Dritsakis, N., Defense spending and economic growth: An empirical investigation for Greece and Turkey (2004) Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, pp. 249-264
  • Dunne, J.P., Economic effects of military spending in developing countries: A survey (1996) The peace dividend, pp. 439-464. , N.P. Gleditsch O. Bjerkholt Å. Cappelen R.P. Smith J.P. Dunne North Holland Ámsterdam
  • Dunne, J.P., Uye, M., Military expenditure and development (2009) The global arms trade., pp. 293-305. , A. Tan Routledge Londres
  • Dunne, J.P., Nikoladiou, E., Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15 (2012) Defence and Peace Economics, 23 (6), pp. 537-548
  • Eichenberg, R., The expenditure and revenue effects of defense spending in the Federal Republic of Germany (1984) Policy Sciences, 16, pp. 391-411
  • Fernández Carbajal, A., La política de vivienda en España durante el franquismo (2003) Estudios Territoriales, 138, pp. 639-653
  • Fernández Carbajal, A., Veinticinco años de política de vivienda en España (1976-2001): una visión panorámica (2004) Tribuna de Economía. Instituto de Comercio Exterior, 816, pp. 145-161
  • Galbraith, J.K., The affluent society (1958), Houghton Mifflin Company Boston
  • Garfinkel, M.R., Domestic politics and international conflict (1994) American Economic Review, 84 (5), pp. 1294-1309
  • Gifford, B., Why no trade-off between “guns and butter”? Armed forces and social spending in the advanced industrial democracies, 1960-1993 (2006) American Journal of Sociology, 2, pp. 473-509
  • Gist, J., Stability and competition in budgetary theory (1982) American Political Science Review, 76, pp. 859-872
  • Glewwe, P., Jacoby, H.G., Economic growth and the demand for education: Is there a wealth effect? (2004) Journal of Development Economics, 74-1, pp. 33-51
  • Goldsmith, B.E., Defense effort and institutional theories of democratic peace and victory: Why try harder? (2007) Security Studies, 16 (2), pp. 189-222
  • Gómez Olmeda, J.A., Las fuerzas armadas en el estado franquista: participación política, influencia presupuestaria y profesionalización, 1939-1975 (1988), Ediciones El Arquero Madrid
  • González Páramo, M., Onrubia, J., (1992) El gasto público en vivienda en España, 120-121, pp. 189-217. , Hacienda Pública Española
  • Griffin, L.J., Devine, J.A., Wallace, M., Monopoly capital, organized labor and military expenditures: Military keynesianism in the United States, 1949-1976 (1982) American Journal of Sociology, 88, pp. S113-S153
  • Hansson, P., Henrekjson, M., A new framework for testing the effect of government spending on growth and productivity (1994) Public Choice, 81, pp. 381-401
  • Hanushek, E.A., Woessmann, L., (2010) The economics of international differences in educational achievement, 492, pp. 45-58. , IZA Discussion Paper n°
  • Heo, U., The political economy of defense spending around the world (1999), Edwin Mellen Lewiston, Nueva York
  • Herbert, P., Petersen, K., Mass warfare and the welfare: State causal mechanisms and effects (2014), ZeS-Working Paper n.° 02
  • Hollenhorst, J., Ault, G., An alternative answer to who pays for defense (1971) American Political Science Review, 65, pp. 760-763
  • Hill, K.Q., Domestic politics, international linkages, and military expenditures (1978) Studies in Comparative International Development, 13 (1), pp. 38-59
  • Howitt, P., Health, human capital and economic growth: A schumpeterian perspective (2005) Health and economic growth: Findings and policy implications., , G. López-Casasnovas B. Rivera L. Currais MIT Pres Cambridge, Massachusets
  • Huisken, R., Armaments and development (1982) Militarization and arms production., , H. Tuomi R. Vayrinen St. Martin Press Nueva York
  • Jones, B.D., Public policies and economic growth in the American states (1990) Journal of Politics, 52, pp. 219-233
  • Jurado Sánchez, J., ¿Se financió la defensa a costa del gasto social y la economía en el siglo XX? El dilema cañones-mantequilla (2012) Hacienda Pública Española, 203-4, pp. 89-117
  • Kidron, M., Western capitalism since the war (1968), Weidenfeld y Nicolson Londres
  • Kollias, C., Paleologou, S.M., Budgetary trade-offs between defence, education and social spending in Greece (2011) Applied Economics Letters, 18, pp. 1071-1075
  • Lebovic, J.H., Spending priorities and democratic rule in Latin America (2001) Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45 (4), pp. 427-452
  • Lin, E., Ali, H., Lu, Y.-L., Does military spending crowd out social welfare expenditures? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries (2015) Defence and Peace Economics, 26-1, pp. 33-48
  • Lindgren, G., Review essay: Armaments and economic performance in industrialized market economies (1984) Journal of Peace Research, 21, pp. 375-387
  • McNair, E., Murdoch, C., Sandler, T., Growth and defense: Pooled estimates for the NATO Alliance, 1951-1988 (1995) Southern Economic Journal, 61 (1), pp. 846-860
  • Mintz, A., Guns vs. butter: A disaggregated analysis (1989) American Political Science Review, 83, pp. 1285-1293
  • Mintz, A., Huang, C., Defense expenditures, economic growth, and the “peace dividend” (1990) American Political Science Review, 84, pp. 1283-1293
  • Mintz, A., Huang, C., Guns versus butter: The indirect link (1991) American Journal of Political Science, 3, pp. 738-757
  • Mintz, A., Stevenson, R.T., Defense expenditures, economic growth, and the peace ‘dividend’: A longitudinal analysis of 103 countries (1995) Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39-2, pp. 283-305
  • Mok, J.W., Duval, R.D., Guns, butter, and debt: Balancing spending tradeoffs between defense, social programs, and budget deficits (1992) The political economy of military spending in the United States., pp. 196-212. , A. Mintz Routledge Nueva York y Londres
  • Morrow James, D., Arms versus allies: Trade-offs in the search for security (1993) International Organization, 47 (2), pp. 207-233
  • Mosley, H., The arms race: Economic and social consequences (1985), Lexington Books Lexington, MA
  • Nardinelli, C., Ackerman, G.B., Defense expenditures and American capitalism: A note (1976) Armed Forces and Society, 3-1, pp. 13-16
  • Peroff, K., The warfare-welfare tradeoff: Health, public aid, and housing (1976) Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare, 4, pp. 366-381
  • Peroff, K., Podolak-Warren, M., Does spending on defence cut spending on health? A time-series analysis of the U.S. economy, 1929-1974 (1979) British Journal of Political Science, 9, pp. 21-39
  • Prados de la Escosura, L., El progreso económico de España (1850-2000) (2003), Fundación BBVA Bilbao
  • Pryor, F.L., Public expenditures in communist and capitalist nations (1968), G. Allen and Unwin LTD Londres
  • Ram, R., Defence expenditure and growth (1995) Handbook of defense economics., pp. 191-203. , K. Hartley T. Sandler Elsevier Amsterdam
  • Rasler, K., Thompson, W.R., Defense burdens, capital formation, and economic growth (1988) Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32 (1), pp. 61-86
  • Russett, B.M., Who pays for defense? (1969) American Political Science Review, 63, pp. 412-426
  • Russett, B.M., Defense expenditures and national well-being (1982) American Political Science Review, 76, pp. 767-777
  • Russett, B.M., Oneal, J., Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence, and international organizations (2001), W. W. Norton Nueva York
  • Sabaté Domingo, O., The political determinants of military spending in the long-term. Spain as a case study (1850-2009) (2013), IV Encuentro Asociación Española de Historia Económica Pamplona
  • Samuelson, P., Economics: An introductory analysis (1948), McGraw Hill Nueva York
  • Solow, R., A contribution to the theory of economic growth (1956) Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1, pp. 65-94
  • Sprout, H., Sprout, M., The dilemma of rising demands and insufficient resources (1968) World Politics, 20 (4), pp. 660-693
  • Van Zon, A., Muisken, J., Health as a principal determinant of economic growth (2005) Health and Economic Growth: Findings and Policy Implications., , B. López-Casasnovas B. Rivera L. Currais MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusets
  • Ward, M.D., Davis, R.D., Sizing up the peace dividend: Economic growth and military spending in the United States, 1948-1990 (1992) American Political Science Review, 86-3, pp. 748-755
  • Wilensky, H., The welfare state and equality (1975), University of California Press Berkeley
  • Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S., Defence, education and health expenditures in Turkey, 1924-96 (2002) Journal of Peace Research, 39 (5), pp. 569-580