Re-examining the debt-growth nexusA grouped fixed-effect approach

  1. Marta Gómez-Puig 1
  2. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero 2
  3. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso 3
  1. 1 Universitat de Barcelona
    info

    Universitat de Barcelona

    Barcelona, España

    ROR https://ror.org/021018s57

  2. 2 Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

  3. 3 University of Göttingen
    info

    University of Göttingen

    Gotinga, Alemania

    ROR https://ror.org/01y9bpm73

Revista:
Documentos de Trabajo (ICAE)

ISSN: 2341-2356

Año de publicación: 2019

Número: 21

Páginas: 1-46

Tipo: Documento de Trabajo

Otras publicaciones en: Documentos de Trabajo (ICAE)

Resumen

This paper uses panel data for 116 countries over the period 1995-2016 to investigate the heterogeneity of the debt-growth nexus across countries and the factors underlying it. In the first step, the grouped fixed effects (GFE) estimator proposed by Bonhomme and Manresa (2015) is used to classify countries into groups, with group membership being endogenously determined. In the second step, a multinomial logit model is used to explore the drivers of the heterogeneity detected, among them the quality of institutions, the composition of debt-funded public expenditure, the relative public and private indebtedness, and the maturity of debt. Finally, the underlying factors explaining the time-varying impact of public debt on growth in the country groups identified is also investigated.

Información de financiación

This paper is based on work supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness [grants ECO2016-76203-C2-2-P and ECO2017-83255-C3-3-P (AEI, FEDER, EU)] and from Universitat Jaume I [project UJI-B2017-33].

Financiadores

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson. 2001. The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation. American Economic Review 91, 1369-1401.
  • Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson. 2002. Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution. Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, 1231-1294.
  • Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson. 2005a. The rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change and Economic Growth. American Economic Review 95(2), May, 546-579.
  • Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson and J. Robinson. 2005b. Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth. Handbook of Economic Growth 1A: 386-472. Edited by Philippe Aghion and Steven N. Durlauf. Elsevier Ed.
  • Afifi, A. A., Clarke, V. 1990. Computer Aided Multivariate Analysis (2nd ed.). New York: Van Nostrand Reinhold.
  • Afonso, A., Jalles, J. T. 2014. Fiscal composition and long-term growth. Applied Economics 46: 349– 358.
  • Aghion, P, Howitt, P. 2009. The Economics of Growth. The MIT Press Cambridge, Mass.
  • Alesina, A., Favero, C., and Giavazzi, F. 2019a. Effects of Austerity: Expenditure- and Tax-based Approaches. Journal of Economic Perspectives 33 (2): 141-162.
  • Alesina, A., Favero, C., and Giavazzi, F. 2019b. Austerity: When it Works and When it Doesn’t. Princeton University Press.
  • Aschauer, D. A. 1989. Is public expenditure productive? Journal of Monetary Economics 23, 177-200.
  • Asimakopoulos, S., Karavias, Y. 2016. The impact of government size on economic growth: A threshold analysis. Economics Letters 139, 65-68.
  • Baltagi, B. D. 2008. Econometric analysis of panel data, fourth ed. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Barro, R. J. 2003. Determinants of economic growth in a panel of countries. Annals of Economics and Finance 4, 231-274
  • Beltratti, A., Stulz, R.M., 2012. The credit crisis around the globe: why did some banks perform better? Journal of Financial Economics 105, 1–17.
  • Beraldo, S., Montolio, D., Turati, G. 2009. Healthy, educated and wealthy: A primer on the impact of public and private welfare expenditures on economic growth. Journal of Socio-Economics 38(6): 946–956.
  • Bonhomme, S., and Manresa, E. 2015. Grouped patterns of heterogeneity in panel data. Econometrica 83, 1147–1184
  • Bredenkamp, H., Hausmann, R., Pienkowski, Al, Reinhart, C. 2019. Challenges Ahead. In Sovereign Debt: A Guide for Economists and Practitioners. Ali Abbas, Alex Pienkowski and Kenneth Rogoff, editors. Chapter 9. London: Oxford University Press, 2019.
  • Breitung, J. 2000. The local power of some unit root tests for panel data. In Advances in Econometrics, Volume 15: Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels, edited by B. H. Baltagi, T. B. Fomby and R. C. Hill. B. H. Baltagi, 161–177. Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
  • Bring, J. 1994. How to Standardize Regression Coefficients. The American Statistician 48, 209-213. Cecchetti, S. G., Mohanty, M., Zampolli, F. 2011. The real effects of debt. In: Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 145–196.
  • Capolupo, R. 2009. The new growth theories and their empirics after twenty years. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 3, 2009-1.
  • Chiu, Y.B.; Lee, C.C. 2017. On the impact of public debt on economic growth: does country risk matter? Contemporary Economic Policy 35 (4), 751-766.
  • Choi, I. 2000. Unit root tests for panel data. Journal of International Money and Finance 20, 249–272.
  • Chong, A., Gradstein, M., 2007. Inequality and institutions. Review of Economics and Statistics 89, 454– 465.
  • Chudik, A., Mohaddes, Pesaran, K., Raissi, M. 2017. Is there a debt-threshold effect on output growth? Review of Economics and Statistics 99, 135-150.
  • Devarajan, S., Swaroop, V. & Zou, H. (1996). The composition of public expenditure and economic growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 313- 344.
  • Eberhardt, M., Presbitero, A.F. 2015. Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity. Journal of International Economics 97, 45-58.
  • Eichengreen, B.; El-Ganainy, A.; Esteves, R.P; Mitchener, K.J. 2019. Public debt through the Ages. IMF Working Paper 19/6.
  • Fantom, N., Serajuddi, U. 2016. The World Bank’s Classification of Countries by Income. Policy Research Working Paper 7528. The World Bank, Washington, DC
  • Fatás, A., Ghosh, A.R., Panniza, U., Presbitero, A.F. 2019. The Motives to Borrow. IMF Working Paper 19/101.
  • Fernandez-Rodriguez, F., Sosvilla Rivero, S., Andrada-Felix, J. 1999. Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: Evidence from the EMS. International Journal of Forecasting 15, 383–392.
  • Fischer, S. 1993. The role of macroeconomic factors in growth. Journal of Monetary Economics 32, 485–512.
  • Frankel, M. 1962. The production function in allocation and growth: A synthesis. American Economic Review 52, 996-1022.
  • Ghosh, A. R., Kim, J.I., Mendoza, E. G., Ostry, J.D., Qureshi, M.S. 2013. Fiscal fatigue, fiscal space and debt sustainability in advanced economies. The Economic Journal 123, F4–F30.
  • Gómez-Puig, M., Sosvilla-Rivero, S. 2017. Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries. International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 51, 470-486.
  • Gómez-Puig, M., Sosvilla-Rivero, S. 2018a. Nonfinancial debt and economic growth in euro-area countries. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money 56, 17-37.
  • Gómez-Puig, M. and Sosvilla-Rivero, S. 2018b. Public debt and economic growth: Further evidence for the euro area. Acta Oeconomica 68 (2), 209-229.
  • Grossman, G., Helpman, E. 1991. Innovation and growth in the global economy. Cambridge, Massachusetts: MIT Press.
  • Grunewald, N., Klasen, S., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Muris, C. 2017. The trade-off between income inequality and carbon dioxide emissions. Ecological Economics 142, 249-256.
  • Guajardo, J., Leigh, D. and Pescatori, A. 2014. Expansionary austerity: new international evidence, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 12(4), 949–68.
  • Hansen, B.E., 2017. Regression kink with an unknown threshold. Journal of Business, Economics and Statistics 35 (2), 228–240.
  • Harris, R. D. F., Tzavalis, E. 1999. Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed. Journal of Econometrics 91: 201–226.
  • Helliwell, J.F., Huang, H. Grover, S., Wang, S. 2014. Good Governance and National Well-being: what are the linkages? OECD Working Papers on Public Governance, No. 25, OECD Publishing.
  • Herce, J. A., Sosvilla-Rivero, S., de Lucio, J. J. 2000. Social protection benefits and growth: Evidence from the European Union. Applied Economics Letters 7: 255-258.
  • Herce, J. A., Sosvilla-Rivero, S., de Lucio, J. J. 2001. Growth and the welfare state in the EU: A causality analysis. Public Choice 109: 55-68.
  • Hsiao, C. 2007. Panel data analysis: Advantages and challenges. Test, 16, 1-22.
  • Im, K. S., M. H. Pesaran, and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53–74.
  • International Monetary Fund. 2016. Debt−Use it wisely. Fiscal Monitor, October, Washington DC.
  • International Monetary Fund, 2018. World Economic Outlook, October, Washington DC.
  • Jalles, T.J. 2011. The impact of democracy and corruption on the debt-growth relationship in developing countries. Journal of Economic Development 36, 41–72.
  • Jordà, O., & Taylor, A. M. (2016). The time for austerity: Estimating the average treatment effect of fiscal policy. The Economic Journal 126, 219–255.
  • Jordà, O. Schularick, M., Taylor, A.M. 2016. Sovereigns versus banks: credit, crises and consequences. Journal of the European Economic Association 14, 45–79.
  • Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., Mastruzzi, M. 2010. The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues. The World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 5430. Washington DC.
  • Kim, E.; Ha, Y.; Kim, S. 2017. Public Debt, Corruption and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability 9 (3), 433.
  • King, G., Honaker, J. Joseph, A,. Scheve, K., 2001. Analyzing incomplete political science data: An alternative algorithm for multiple imputation. American Political Science Review 95, 49–69.
  • Kourtellos, A., Stengos, T., Tan, C.M. 2013. The effect of public debt on growth in multiple regimes. Journal of Macroeconomics 38, 35–43.
  • Levin, A., C.-F. Lin, and Chu, C.-S. J. 2002. Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finitesample properties. Journal of Econometrics 108, 1–24.
  • Lof, M., Malinen, T. 2014. Does sovereign debt weaken economic growth? A panel VAR analysis. Economics Letters 122, 403–407.
  • Lombardi, M., Mohanty, M., Shim, I. 2017. The real effects of household debt in the short and long run. Working Papers No 607, Bank for International Settlements, Basel.
  • Markus, A., Rainer, S. 2016. Public debt and economic growth: Economic systems matter, Discussion Paper 281, Center for European Governance and Economic Development Research, Göttingen.
  • Mbaye, S., Moreno-Badia, M., and Chae, K. (2018). Global debt database: Methodology and sources. Working Paper 18/111, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
  • Mitze, T., Matz, F. 2015. Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn? Journal of Policy Modeling 37, 208-228.
  • Oberlander, L., Disdier, A-C., Etilé, F. 2017. Globalization and national trends in nutrition and health: A grouped fixed-effects approach to intercountry heterogeneity. Health Economics 26 (9), 1146-1161.
  • Pattillo, C., Poirson, H., Ricci, L.A. 2011. External debt and growth. Review of Economics and Institutions 2, 1-30.
  • Pescatori, A., Sandri, D., Simon, J. 2014. Debt and growth: Is there a magic threshold? Working Paper 14/34, International Monetary Fund, Washington D. C.
  • Pindyck, R., Rubinfeld, D., 1998. Econometric Models and Financial Forecasts, fourth edition. McGrawHill, Boston, Mass.
  • Reinhart, R., Rogoff, K. 2010. Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review 100, 573-578.
  • Romer, P.M. 1992. Two strategies for economic development: Using ideas and producing ideas. World Bank Economic Review 6 (Sup 1), 63-91.
  • Sachs, J.D., Warner, A.W. 1997. Fundamental sources of long-run growth. American Economic Review 87, 184-188.
  • Schularick, M., Taylor, A.M. 2012. Credit booms gone bust: Monetary policy, leverage cycles, and financial crises, 1870–2008. American Economic Review 102, 1029–1061.
  • Seghezza, E., Baldwin, R.E. 2008. Testing for trade-induced investment-led growth. Economia Internazionale/International Economics 61, 507-537.
  • Solow, R. M. 1956. A Contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 70, 65-94.
  • Woo, J., Kumar, M. S. 2015. Public debt and growth. Economica 82, 705-739.
  • World Bank. 1990. World development report 1990: Poverty. Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Yang, L., Su, J.J. 2018. Debt and growth: Is there a constant tipping point? Journal of International Money and Finance 87, 133–143.
  • Yared, P. 2019. Rising Government Debt: Causes and Solutions for a Decades-Old Trend. Journal of Economic Perspectives 33 (2): 115-140.