Predicción de velocidad media y rachas máximas diarias de viento en la Península Ibérica mediante metodología de análogos
- Álvaro Pascual
- Álvaro Subias
- María Luisa Martín
- Francisco Valero
- Amelia García
- Luis Ignacio Sebastián
- María Yolanda Luna
- Ana Morata
- Concepción Rodríguez Puebla (coord.)
- Antonio Ceballos Barbancho (coord.)
- Nube González Reviriego (coord.)
- Enrique Morán Tejeda (coord.)
- Ascensión Hernández Encinas (coord.)
Editorial: Asociación Española de Climatología
ISBN: 978-84-695-4331-3
Ano de publicación: 2012
Páxinas: 571-580
Congreso: Asociación Española de Climatología. Congreso (8. 2012. Salamanca)
Tipo: Achega congreso
Resumo
This work aims to obtain and analyze predictions of daily mean wind speed and daily wind gust through an analogous downscaling methodology using the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In a first step, multivariate methodology is used to reduce the dimensionality of the large-scale atmospheric database. Then, an analogous downscaling methodology is used to predict Iberian mean winds and wind gusts. Several results of spatial correlations, bias and root mean squared errors between observational and predicted fields are displayed, evaluating the skilful of the used methodologies for predicting mean winds and wind gusts. Several probabilistic verification results are also shown in contrast to a deterministic forecast. Extremes are defined taking into account several thresholds in terms of variance values of the observational mean winds and gusts.