Modelización regional de periodos secos sobre la Península Ibérica en clima presente y condiciones de cambio climático

1. Enrique Sánchez ¹
2. Marta Domínguez ¹
3. Raquel Romera ¹
4. Noelia López de la Franca ¹
5. Miguel Ángel Gaertner ¹
6. Clemente Gallardo ¹
7. Manuel de Castro ¹

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Abstract

Climatic modelling of precipitation processes is one of the most complex issues and with higher uncertainty when dealing with climatic change projections due to the increase of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, studies usually analyze changes in precipitation, but is less frequent to put the focus on the changes of no rain periods. Nevertheless, over the Iberian Peninsula, the characteristics of dry spells is a very relevant aspect of its climatology, where hydrological stresses is a very relevant and important problem. Regional climate modelling (RCMs) of dry spells for observed climate conditions indicate that those models are able to reproduce the main aspects both on its spatial structure (a north/south gradient) and on the statistical distribution. It is interesting to notice that global climate models (GCMs) exhibit a higher difficulty to obtain results comparable to observations. For future climate conditions, models indicate an increase in the mean dry spell length, a reduction on the return period for the longest dry spells, and a higher increase over the southern part of the Iberian Peninsula.

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