Ensayos de la simulación del índice NAO de invierno con datos de CMIP5

Abstract

Results from the IPCC AR4 report and other recent analyses of temperature and precipitation from CMIP3 dataset, agreed that Mediterranean region and Iberian Peninsula are highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Due to the connections between those variables and Teleconnections patterns, is interesting to study them under increasing emission scenarios, to apply this study for regional downscaling. This work shows results of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern for winter season (DJF). This pattern was obtained from 500 hPa geopotential height data from the World Climate Research Programme ́s (WCRP ́s) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with the experiments “Historical “ and “RCP 8.5”. We used Partial Least Squares Regression (PLS) procedure in order to obtain the patterns and indices, taking into account the patterns of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA as reference. Results focus on spatial and temporal analysis of the multi-model that was built with models that best reproduce the observed NAO according to the Taylor Diagram.