Modelización y predicción del tráfico marítimo en los puertos españoles

  1. Coto-Millán, Pablo
  2. Inglada-Pérez, Lucía
  3. Casares, Pedro
  4. Inglada, Vicente
Revista:
Anales de ASEPUMA

ISSN: 2171-892X

Año de publicación: 2019

Número: 27

Tipo: Artículo

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Otras publicaciones en: Anales de ASEPUMA

Resumen

Traditionally, maritime transport has played an important role in the world economy through its close connection with world trade and a large part of the international exchanges of products used in this regard. This is the reason why it is considered enhanced, if possible, in a completely globalized and interdependent world like the current one, where the commercial competitiveness of a country depends on a place of adequate access to an international maritime transport service and an efficient port system. In the Spanish case, the port system plays a very important strategic role in economic activity and in the economic and social system that is close to the foreign system, foreign trade is carried out with maritime transport and a significant part of the territory has a insular character. The modeling and prediction of maritime transport demand is also relevant for efficient system management, as well as the efficient future of investments, taking into account the cost of investments, as well as their long-term nature. . In general, their interest extends to all agents involved in maritime transport: shipowners, charterers, etc. and the activities developed inside it. The general objective of this work is the modeling and prediction of maritime traffic in Spanish ports. For this, a wide range of linear and non-linear models is used, such as SARIMA, Exponential Smoothing and neural networks. The accuracy of the predictions with the fitted models is also used to evaluate the mean absolute error or the mean square error.

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