El nuevo marco de asociación de la Unión Europea con terceros países desde el enfoque de gestión de riesgosla eficacia de la AOD en la generación de oportunidades económicas

Resumen

If refugee management crisis generated by the conflict in Syria were to be analyzed from a risk management perspective, it would appear the European Union has outsourced the response. The concept of risk is by nature neutral, what defines that a risk is an opportunity, or a threat is the effectiveness of the response. When the response generates a positive impact on the actors involved, the strategy is called “sharing the opportunity”. When the impact is negative, it is called "transferring the threat." Using terminology typical of the international protection system, that the strategy of the European Union embodied in the Association Framework as an instrument of the external dimension of migration policy responds to the principle of "sharing the opportunity" or really a response to "transfer responsibility” depends on whether the impact generated in the asylum territory is positive or negative and the positive sign of the impact necessarily passes through the integration of the refugee population. The instrument that the European Union identifies to generate long-term conditions in the asylum territories that allow integrating the refugee population and reducing migratory flows to Europe is Official Development Assistance. And it is precisely this assumption on which the new long-term approach to the external dimension of the European migration and asylum policy is based, which motivated this investigation. After more than half a century of Official Development Assistance, is it reasonable to think that ODA is going to create economic opportunities for the recipient partners? The impact of ODA on GDP and its components for the period 1965-2017 has been analyzed in this research by estimating Vector Error Correction models. The sample of countries analyzed is six of the development partners prioritized in the Framework of Association of the European Union: Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, Senegal, and Sudan. The results of the analysis show that, in the short term, ODA has generated a significant positive impact in Jordan and Sudan, a negative one in Morocco and has not had a statistically significant impact in Senegal, Tunisia and Algeria. The 15-year projection made using the impulse response function shows that, in the long term, the positive impact is sustained only in Jordan, it is negative in Sudan, Senegal, Algeria, and Morocco and undefined in Tunisia.