¿El resurgimiento político del Líbano cristiano?

  1. Lion Bustillo, Javier 1
  1. 1 Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

Revista:
Revista de estudios políticos

ISSN: 0048-7694

Any de publicació: 2018

Número: 179

Pàgines: 69-99

Tipus: Article

DOI: 10.18042/CEPC/REP.179.03 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openDialnet editor

Altres publicacions en: Revista de estudios políticos

Resum

An agreement between the principal Lebanese Christian leaders, Samir Geagea and Michel Aoun, has begun a collaboration between two previously radically antagonistic actors. The objective of this article is to assess the possibility that this implies a remarkable shift in the post-civil war political balance, in favour of the Christian community. In order to achieve this objective, the paper analyses a umber of different possible political scenarios and their implications for the Lebanese institutional system. The conclusions suggest that several circumstances, including the polarisation of Lebanese politics, the Saudi-Iranian rivalry, and the Syrian civil war, have contributed to the enhancement of Christian political influence within the current electoral coalitions. However, traditional divisions among the Christian elites renders unlikely the emergence of either a true Christian pole or a ‘third way’. Regardless, the effects of the agreement have been positive in relation to solving the existing institutional blockade. It has also contributed to attaining a consensus concerning the new electoral law, as traditional parties are interested in preventing the emergence of new political actors.

€ Mostra el finançament

Informació de finançament

Este artículo se inscribe en el marco del proyecto de investigación dirigido por la Laura Feliú Martínez y Ferrán Izquierdo Brichs, «Dinámicas y actores transnacionales en Oriente Medio y Norte de África (MENA): una genealogía histórica de élites y movimientos sociales entre lo local y lo global» (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, Agencia Estatal de Investigación y Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional) (HAR2016-77876-P).

Finançadors

Referències bibliogràfiques

  • Abirached, P. (2012). Charisme, pouvoir et communauté politique: la figure de Michel Aoun. En F. Mermier y S. Mervin (comps.). Leaders et partisans au Liban (pp. 35-56). Paris: Karthala-IFPO-IISMM.
  • Antonios, Z. (2016). Vers un Doha bis avec un package deal pour la présidence et le gouvernement? L’Orient le Jour, 19-5-2016. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/gGAQRy.
  • Aubin-Boltanski, E. (2012). Samir Geagea: le guerrier, le martyr et le zaim. En F. Mermier y S. Mervin (comps.). Leaders et partisans au Liban (pp. 57-71). Paris: Karthala-IFPO-IISMM.
  • Aulas, M. C. (1985). The Socio-Ideological Development of the Maronite Community: The Emergence of the Phalange and the Lebanese Forces. Arab Studies Quarterly, 7 (4), 1-27.
  • Ayubi, N. (1995). Overstating the Arab State. Politics and Society in the Middle East. London: I. B. Tauris.
  • Baroudi, S. y Salamey, I. (2011). US-French Collaboration in Lebanon: How Syria’s Role in Lebanon and the Middle East Contributed to a US-French Convergence. Middle East Journal, 65 (3), 398-425. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.3751/65.3.13
  • Brown, L. C. (1984). International Politics of the Middle East. Old Rules, Dangerous Game. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  • Chemaly, R. (2009). Le printemps 2005 au Liban. Entre mythes et réalités. Paris: L’Harmattan.
  • Corm, G. (2006). El Líbano contemporáneo: historia y sociedad. Barcelona: Ediciones Bellaterra.
  • Dagher, R. (2015). Aoun’s Jockeying. Carnegie Endowment for Peace, 28-7-2015. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/Jj9c4W
  • Dakroub, H. (2017). Hariri rules out any future rifts with Aoun. The Daily Star, 7-2-2017. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/siG67W
  • De Taisne, M. (2015). Resilience of the Lebanese Armed Forces. MENA Analysis. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/Yb7zxv
  • Ehteshami, A. y Hinnebusch, R. (2002). Syria and Iran. Middle Powers in a Penetrated Regional System. London: Routledge.
  • Einav, O. (2014). The Presidential Crisis in Lebanon: Temporary Danger or Sign of a Destructive Rift. INSS Insight, 562, 22/06/2014. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/27XaAH. https://doi.org/10.3751/65.3.13
  • Ekmekji, A. A. (2012). Confessionalism and Electoral Reform in Lebanon. Aspen Institute Briefing Paper. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/RnfAkz
  • Fakhoury-Mühlbacher, T. (2009). Democracy and Power-Sharing in Stormy Weather: The Case of Lebanon. Wiesbaden: Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-531-91769-6
  • Fayad, E. (2016). De Rabieh à Baabda, la route plus longue. L’Orient le Jour, 17-5-2016. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/5miuB5
  • Ghanem, E. (2015). Retiring Officials Triggers Security Concerns in Lebanon. Al-Monitor, 4-3-2015. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/NxYCVU
  • Ghanem, E. (2016). Why Is Hariri Back in Lebanon. Al Monitor, 18-3-2016. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/UFqG3d
  • Gilmour, D. (1983). Lebanon: The Fractured Country. Oxford: Martin Robertson.
  • Haddad, S. (2017). Loi électorale: un accord de principe que ne craint plus les détails. L’Orient le Jour, 5-6-2017. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/F5UdJs
  • Hamzeh, A. (2001). Clientalism, Lebanon. Roots and Trends. Middle Eastern Studies, 37 (3), 167-178. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/714004405.
  • Henley, A. (2008). Politics of a Church at War. Mediterranean Politics, 13 (3), 353-369. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13629390802386713.
  • Hudson, M. (1985). The Precarious Republic. Political Modernization in Lebanon. New York: Random House.
  • International Crisis Group (2008). The New Lebanese Equation: The Christians’ Central Role. Middle East Report, 78. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/iBxmq6.
  • International Crisis Group (2009). Les élections libanaises: éviter un nouveau cycle de confrontation. Rapport Moyen Orient, 87. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/rA3Eh8.
  • Kingston, P. y Zahar, M. J. (2004). Rebuilding a House of Many Mansions: The Rise and Fall
  • Kaufmann, A. (2001). Phoenicianism: The Formation of an Identity in Lebanon in 1920. Middle Eastern Studies, 37 (1), 173-194. Disponible en: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/714004369.
  • Khalaf, S. (2002). Civil and Uncivil Violence in Lebanon. New York: Columbia University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.7312/khal12476.
  • of Militia Cantons in Lebanon. En P. Kingston e I. Spears (comps.). States Within States (pp. 81-98). New York: Palgrave-Macmillan.
  • Lewis, B. (1988). The Political Language of Islam. Chicago: Chicago University Press. Lijphart, A. (1968). Tipologies of Democratic Systems. Comparative Political Studies, 1 (1), 3-44. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1177/001041406800100101.
  • Lion Bustillo, J. (2014). Líbano y Siria: entre la disociación y el desbordamiento. Revista CIDOB d’Afers Internacionals, 108, 213-235.
  • Makdisi, U. (2000). The Lebanon. Culture of Sectarianism. Community, History and Violence in Nineteenth-Century Ottoman. Berkeley: University of California Press.
  • Mermier, F. y Mervin, S. (2012). Introduction. Une approche anthropologique du leadership au Liban. En F. Mermier y S. Mervin (comps.). Leaders et partisans au Liban (pp. 7-32). Paris: Karthala-IFPO-IISMM.
  • Naharnet Newsdesk (2016). Geagea, Berri in War of Words over Aoun’s Candidacy. Naharnet, 25-1-2016. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/T4vdco.
  • Nir, O. (2014). The Sunni Shii Balance in Lebanon in Light of the War in Syria and Regional Changes. Middle East Review on International Affairs, 18 (1), 54-75. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/EKoxVS.
  • Noujeim, S. (2016). L’alliance Aoun-Geagea suscite à la fois exaltation et craintes. L’Orient le Jour, 19-1-2016. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/nmzqWb
  • Phares, W. (1995). Lebanese Christian Nationalism. The Rise and Fall of an Ethnic Resistance. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
  • Picadou, N. (1992). La déchirure libanaise. Brussels: Ed. Complèxe. Posen, B. (1993). The Security Dilemma and Ethnic Conflict. En M. Brown (comp.). Ethnic Conflict and International Security (pp. 103-124). Princeton: Princeton University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.1080/00396339308442672
  • Saddi, J. (2015). 16 Points Agreement between the Lebanese Forces and the Free Patriotic Movement. Alshark [blog]. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/9QZWLJ
  • Salamey, I. (2009). Failing Consociationalism in Lebanon and Integrative Options. International Journal of Peace Studies, 14 (2), 83-105.
  • Salamey, I. (2015). The Frangieh Presidency and the Revival of Taif. The Arab Weekly, 4-12-2015. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/Y3obdK
  • Salibi, K. (1988). A House of Many Mansions. The History of Lebanon Reconsidered. London: I. B. Tauris.
  • Salloukh, B. F., Barakat, R., Al-Habbal, J. S., Khattab, L. W. y Mikaelian, S. (2015). The Politics of Sectarianism in Postwar Lebanon. London: Pluto Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctt183p3d5
  • Saouli, A. (2012). The Arab State. Dilemmas of Late State Formation. Oxon: Routledge.
  • Shabb, B. (2014). Lebanon without President: Can Lebanon Weather Neighborhood Storm? Viewpoints Wilson Center, 57. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/GHEJPx
  • Shaery-Eisenlohr, R. (2008). Shiite Lebanon. Transnational Religion and the Making of National Identities. New York: Columbia University Press. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.7312/shae14426
  • Verdeil, E., Faour, G. y Velut, S. (2007). Atlas du Liban. Territoires et société. Beirut: IFPO-CNRS. Disponible en: https://doi.org/10.4000/books.ifpo.402
  • Weiss, M. (2010). In the Shadow of Sectarianism. Law, Shiism and the Making of Modern Lebanon. Cambridge, Ma.: Harvard University Press.
  • Wood, J. (2016). Is Lebanon’s Aoun-Geagea alliance more about increasing Christian clout than presidency? The National, 19-1-2016. Disponible en: https://goo.gl/7xHSKQ
  • Zahar, M. J. (2005). Power Sharing in Lebanon: Foreign Protectors, Domestic Peace, and Democratic Failure. En P. Roeder y D. Rothchild (eds.). Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy after Civil Wars (pp. 219-240). Ithaca-London: Cornell University Press.
  • Zamir, M. (1985). The Formation of Modern Lebanon. London: Croom Helm.
Fuente de los datos: Dialnet