Impacto de los shocks externos en el transporte aéreo. Aplicación al caso español de modelos SARIMA con análisis de intervención

  1. Inglada-Pérez, Lucía 1
  2. Coto-Millán, Pablo 2
  3. Inglada López de Sabando, Vicente 1
  4. Casares, Pedro 2
  1. 1 Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia
    info

    Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/02msb5n36

  2. 2 Universidad de Cantabria
    info

    Universidad de Cantabria

    Santander, España

    ROR https://ror.org/046ffzj20

Revista:
Anales de ASEPUMA

ISSN: 2171-892X

Any de publicació: 2020

Número: 28

Tipus: Article

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Altres publicacions en: Anales de ASEPUMA

Resum

Since the emergence of the airplane as a massive means of transport in the second half of the last century, air travel has experienced a great development with very high growth rates. However, within these clear patterns of trend growth, there are significant fluctuations that highlight the high sensitivity of air demand to exogenous shocks such as the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States. In this sense, although the economic aspects on the air industry and other sectors have been studied with certain profusion, this has not been the case with the impacts on the demand associated with such phenomena and even less so for the Spanish case. The aim of this study is to model and estimate the impact of external shocks and the economic cycle on the demand for passenger air transport, broken down into its two components: domestic and international. The methodology used for the univariate analysis of the corresponding time series is based on the SARIMA multiplicative models extended with the intervention analysis. Using this tool, the high sensitivity of air traffic to the economic cycle and the important effect of exogenous shocks on the demand for air passenger transport in Spain are empirically contrasted.

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