El no tan nuevo espíritu del predictivismo: de la estadística moderna al big data

  1. Igor Sádaba Rodríguez 1
  1. 1 Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

Journal:
Crítica penal y poder: una publicación del Observatorio del Sistema Penal y los Derechos Humanos

ISSN: 2014-3753

Year of publication: 2020

Issue: 19

Pages: 56-77

Type: Article

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More publications in: Crítica penal y poder: una publicación del Observatorio del Sistema Penal y los Derechos Humanos

Abstract

The modern world is based on a series of epistemological frameworks and key ideas on which the control of uncertainty from science and the possibility of anticipating the future through prediction stand out. The rationality that is taking shape from modern scientific thinking places special emphasis on the management of the random and indeterminate (the administration of "ambivalence" will say Bauman as a constitutive element of the modern) whose concrete materialization are devices to calculate, estimate or predict. More specifically, disciplines such as modern statistics will allow these operations to be carried out on large populations. It is the case of some suggestive authors: prevent crime, Quetelet or prevent suicide, Durkheim. For these theorists, the novelty is that reality (natural, social, etc.) and its evolution may be appropriate from these mathematical devices facilitating their political (biopolitical) management. From the “Politics of large numbers” (Desrosières) of modern Statistics to global supercomputing, the same predictive vector and the illusion of anticipating behaviours are invisible. The current Big Data also carries a neopositivist promise of extreme estimation on a magma of natural or social data. In this case, it will not be the precision or the clear computation but the enormous volume of bits that will guarantee, by pure overwhelming quantitativeness, to anticipate the social futures and their deviant behaviours. In this article we propose that the parallelism is more than evident between one era and another.

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