State-Uncertainty preferences and the Risk Premium inthe Exchange rate market
- Jiménez-Martín, Juan-Ángel
- Novales Cinca, Alfonso
ISSN: 2341-2356
Año de publicación: 2009
Número: 17
Páginas: 1-25
Tipo: Documento de Trabajo
Otras publicaciones en: Documentos de Trabajo (ICAE)
Resumen
This paper introduces state-uncertainty preferences into the Lucas (1982) economy,showing that this type of preferences helps to explain the exchange rate risk premium. Under these preferences we can distinguish between two factors driving the exchange rate risk premium: �macroeconomic risk� and �the risk associated with variation in the private agents� perception on the level of uncertainty�. State-uncertainty preferences amount to assuming that a given level of consumption will yield a higher level of utility the lower is the level of uncertainty perceived by consumers. Furthermore, empirical evidence from three main European economies in the transition period to the euro provides empirical support for the model.