Amenaza de tsunami en la costa mediterránea española por fallas en el Mar de Alborán y en el norte de Argelia

Abstract

The Spanish Mediterranean area is exposed to tsunamigenic sources of two different tectonic environments with contrasting characteristics: a) the Alboran Basin characterised by transcurrent and transpressive tectonics; and b) the North Algerian fold and thrust belt, characterised by compressive tectonics. A set of 22 seismic tsunamigenic sources has been used to estimate the tsunami threat over the Spanish Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. Maximum wave elevation maps and tsunami travel times have been computed by means of numerical modeling and estimations of threat levels for each source over the Spanish coast have been obtained. The sources on the Western edge of North Algeria are the most dangerous, due to their threat to the South-Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula and to the Western Balearic Islands. In the Iberian Peninsula, the Spanish provinces of Almeria and Murcia are the most exposed, while all the Balearic Islands can be affected by the North Algerian sources with probable severe damage, specially the islands of Ibiza and Minorca. The results obtained in this work are useful to plan future regional and local warning systems, as well as to set the priority areas to conduct research on detailed tsunami risk.