Análisis estadístico de caudales de crecida para la subcuenca de El Burguillo (río Alberche, Cuenca del Tajo).

Resumen

A statistical analysis of flood discharges has been carried out in the El Burguillo subbasin (Alberche River, Tajo Basin, Central Spain), using pararnetric methods with only local data. Three series of peak discharges and nine statistics models (distribution function + parameters estimation method) were utilized in order to obtain the 27 possible combinations of flood probability results. Besides, a temporal study of the flood frequency and its relation with some synoptic meteorological situations was made. The best statistic model for these series is the combination of a Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV) and the Moments method (MOM). The flood events are located between Octuber and May, and they could be mainly related to Atlantic northwest frontal systems slowly transported by the westerlies. The SCS methodology to obtain the curve number needs more corrections than a simple application of the regional multiplicative factor, because its value varies with the return period.