Falles actives i perillositat sísmica al marge nord-occidental del solc de València

Abstract

The recognition of active faults and the determination of the characteristic earthquake parameters for each fault is a difficult key point in the seismic hazard analysis of zones with low seismic activity. The faults located in these regions are characterized by low slip-rates (seismic cycles between 103 and 105) thing that defaults the distinction between active and inactive faults. Different approaches are proposed to help in this distinction. The first one consists on the coincidence in space of historical and instrumental earthquakes with the main neotectonic faults. Using this approach it is possible to recognize faults that produced destructive earthquakes in the past and the faults that are responsible for the moderate present seismic activity and might generate destructive earthquakes in the future. The next approach is based on the idea that under the same climatic and geological conditions the active faults should have similar geomorphological expression. Therefore, the geomorphological and morphometrical comparison between faults that produced destructive earthquakes and long faults having an appropriate orientation with respect to the current stress field to be activated will allow us to detect faults that are probably active and could potentially produce destructive earthquakes. The last approach is based on the recognition of deformed plio-quaternary sedimentary layers through the analysis of seismic reflection profiles made in the offshore zones. Using these approaches, the faults located in eastern Iberia have been classified as: 1) seismogenic faults, those which have generated destructive earthquakes in the past; 2) faults with present and accumulated activity registry, , those that show geomorphological features revealing long term activity and also showing moderate to low current activity; 3) faults with accumulated activity registry, those that show geomorphological features revealing long term activity;, 4) faults with present activity registry, those that are the responsible of part of the present moderate earthquake activity; and 5) non active faults. Using the length of the seismogenic and high potential faults enabled me to estimate their maximum earthquake and, from the dated geomorphological features, brackets for long-term slip-rates have been obtained. Other seismic parameters (recurrence period for example) have been estimated from the slip-rates according to empirical relationships among different seismic parameters. Finally, hazard maps of eastern Iberia concerning long return periods have been proposed.