Valoración del Riesgo Inmobiliario en Europa, con entorno de incertidumbre

Resum

The real estate market satisfies the essential home requirement, while it is an important part of the economic activity. As other markets, it does possible business opportunities, however it has an important difference, the capacity to create huge damage in the economy and population. The main objective of this paper is to assess the risk of a likely real estate crisis in Europe, to find preventive therapies that avoid this recurring threat. The first part refers to the classical valuation methodology as the main weakness observed. The second part includes an empirical review of time series, with historical returns, for clarifying, measurement and valuation of the financial risks. The evolution of future prices in the medium-long term has been generated by means of a simulation with an environment of uncertainty (Random Walk), and reversion to the mean according to the Vasicek model. The third part analyzes the results on expected and unexpected losses in the time horizon, submitting the preliminary hypotheses to discussion. Finally, the conclusions are justified to get proposals over the results for improving.