Simulaciones de sismicidad sintética basadas en las propiedades físicas de las fallas y la transferencia de esfuerzosaplicación al Sistema de Fallas de las Béticas Orientales (SE España)

  1. Paula Herrero Barbero 1
  2. José Antonio Álvarez Gómez 1
  3. C. Williams 2
  4. Pilar Villamor Pérez 2
  5. José Jesús Martínez Díaz 1
  6. Jorge Alonso Henar 1
  7. Juan M. Insua Arévalo 1
  1. 1 Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

  2. 2 GNS Science
Geotemas (Madrid)

ISSN: 1576-5172

Year of publication: 2021

Issue: 18

Pages: 832

Type: Article

More publications in: Geotemas (Madrid)


Many of the largest damaging historical earthquakes occurred in the Betic Cordillera are related to the Eastern Betic Shear Zone (EBSZ): tectonic structure dominated by left-lateral strike-slip faults, some of them with reverse component. When esti- mating rupture scenarios in this fault system, we find some limitations: poorly constrained geometrical parameters in some faults, large uncertainties associated with the slip-rates estimations, generally low (< 1 mm/yr), and the historical catalog covers a short time period compared with the long inter-event interval between major events. Synthetic seismicity can solve the limitations of real catalogs (e.g., Shaw et al., 2018) and provides interesting information based on the fault geometry and kinematics and the frictional properties, which allows us to check different rupture scenarios and also evaluate if multi-fault ruptures are potentially possible. We implemented the RSQSim earthquake simulator (Richards-Dinger and Dieterich, 2012) on a 3D model of the main seismogenic sources of the EBSZ, assigning the deformation rates and the elastic and frictional properties compiled to reproduce the physical processes that control earthquake occurrence. We obtained realistic 100 kyr seismic catalogs that show MW ≥6.5 events associated to complete ruptures of several faults of the system, and multi-fault ruptures involving the Carboneras and Palomares faults with inter-event times of less than 20 kyr, and between Alhama de Murcia and Los Tollos faults by stress transfer.