Propuesta de estimación de la producción científica de las universidades madrileñas a través de modelos autoregresivos (AR) y en espacio de estados (SS)

Resumen

The IUNE Observatory of Universities is a good source to monitor the research activity of Universities in Spain and be able to observe the general trend, as well as the particularities of each one of the institutions. This work focuses on scientific production analysis and, more particularly, with Madrid Universities case. With that purpose, the Observatory data will be used to analyse the evolution of these universities throughout 2000 to 2014 period. Complementarily, mathematical models to model its behaviour is going to be used, besides forecast future production. For it, a methodology based on the use of autoregressive models (AR), particularized by explaining processes considering previous values, will be applied. On the other hand, the use of state-space models (SS) is proposed, considering different exogenous variables, such as European and Spanish funding. This methodological approach will make it possible to compare both approaches and test how it works to explain its dynamic and evolution.