Desarrollo de un modelo espacio-temporal para la simulación del movimiento espontáneo de las personas mediante la creación de superficies de movimiento

Zusammenfassung

This essay is focused in the interaction among a person and his spatio-temporal context which takes place during the spontaneous displacement of the person (interacting at every instant with the environment), when the person chooses the maximum utility trajectory according his preferences. The main objective is modelling such human behaviour in order to obtain the most probable trajectories going on in a specified scenario, which is mainly defined trough an environment, a person and a period of time. One of the main contributions of this dissertation is the movement surface, which have been designed in order to materialise such interaction. They represent the utility value over an environment trough a discrete surface structured by cells. Due to the cells exert an attraction force proportional to its utility (fundament based in accessibility gravity models), the higher utility cells are the most probable ones of being part of the trajectory. The trajectory prediction over the movement surface has its fundament in the flow confluence surfaces, materializing the analogy existing between human displacements and flow of liquids. As this movement surfaces are the result of two components changing over time (person and environment), they are as well characterized by dynamicity. By one hand, the person is susceptible to the temporal dimension: the displacement preferences vary according to the moment (dates and schedules) when the activity finality of the displacement takes place. And by the other hand, time is also affecting the environment trough the events varying its characteristics. This essay describes the methodology building up the model by the consecution of three phases (abstraction, reasoning and prediction) and using the synergy and techniques as varied as spatio-temporal models, object and event orientation, multicriteria evaluation, utility measures, and gravity models. It also shows the implementation carried out through a knowledge formalization tool (Protege & Jess), and trough a Java application implementing the model and allowing make simulations over a real scenario (displacements over Dwingelderveld Park). Finally, it is shown a mechanism for describing the geometry of resultant movement, allowing inferring different relationships regarding to this movement.