A Machine Learning-Based Predictive Model for Outcome of Covid-19 in Kidney Transplant Recipients
- Ignacio Revuelta
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Francisco Javier Santos Arteaga
1
- Enrique Montagud-Marrahi 2
- Pedro Ventura Aguiar 2
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1
Universidad Complutense de Madrid
info
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2
Hospital Clinic Barcelona
info
Editorial: https://publons.com/wos-op/publon/51111900/
ISSN: 1600-6135
Año de publicación: 2021
Tipo: Aportación congreso
Resumen
In an overwhelming demand scenario, such as the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, pressure over health systems may outburst their predicted capacity to deal with such extreme situations. Therefore, in order to successfully face a health emergency, scientific evidence and validated models are needed to provide real-time information that could be applied by any health center, especially for high-risk populations, such as transplant recipients. We have developed a hybrid prediction model whose accuracy relative to several alternative configurations has been validated through a battery of clustering techniques. Using hospital admission data from a cohort of hospitalized transplant patients, our hybrid Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model extrapolates the progression towards severe COVID-19 disease with an accuracy of 96.3%, outperforming any competing model, such as logistic regression (65.5%) and random forest (44.8%). In this regard, DEA-ANN allows us to categorize the evolution of patients through the values of the analyses performed at hospital admission. Our prediction model may help guiding COVID-19 management through the identification of key predictors that permit a sustainable management of resources in a patient-centered model. Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10462-021-10008-0.
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