A review of the limitations of financial failure prediction research

  1. Laitinen, Erkki K.
  2. Camacho-Miñano, María-del-Mar 1
  3. Muñoz-Izquierdo, Nora
  1. 1 Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

Revista:
Revista de Contabilidad

ISSN: 1988-4672 1138-4891

Año de publicación: 2023

Volumen: 26

Número: 2

Páginas: 255-273

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.6018/RCSAR.453041 GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Revista de Contabilidad

Resumen

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar críticamente los principales puntos débiles asociados a las limitaciones de los estudios de investigación sobre predicción de quiebras financieras. Durante más de 80 años, los investigadores han estudiado sin éxito la forma de crear una teoría general del fracaso financiero que sea útil para la predicción. En este artículo, revisamos los principales límites de la investigación sobre predicción de quiebras mediante una evaluación crítica de trabajos anteriores y nuestro propio enfoque a partir de la experiencia investigadora. Nuestras conclusiones corroboran que estos estudios adolecen de una falta de investigación teórica y dinámica, una definición poco clara del fracaso, deficiencias con la calidad de los datos de los estados financieros y un déficit en los análisis de diagnóstico del fracaso. También se esbozan las implicaciones más relevantes para futuras investigaciones en este ámbito. Se trata del primer estudio que analiza en profundidad las salvedades de los estudios de predicción de la quiebra financiera, un tema crucial en la actualidad debido a los atisbos de crisis económica provocados por la pandemia del Covid-19.

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