Occupational change in Europe after the Great Recession

  1. Daniel Herrero Alba 1
  2. Laura Pérez Ortíz 2
  1. 1 Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales (ICEI), Universidad Complutense de Madrid
  2. 2 Universidad Autónoma de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR https://ror.org/01cby8j38

Revista:
Working Papers del Instituto Complutense de Estudios Internacionales

Año de publicación: 2023

Tipo: Documento de Trabajo

DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.13378.25287 GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Resumen

This paper empirically explores the occupational change in Europe after the 2008-crisis (the Great Recession). During this period, which has remained relatively unexplored by the literature so far, many European economies have implemented profound institutional changes in their labor markets and transformed their growth models. Using individual-level data from 18 economies, we build three indicators of job quality -the average educational attainment, the median earnings, and an index of job instability based on the contractual characteristics of the job- and analyze the relative employment growth of jobs. Our findings suggest that there is not a unique pattern of occupational change in Europe, in opposition to the mainstream view of pervasive polarization. On the contrary, we detect a variety of occupational change profiles, which even differ within the same country depending on the indicator employed.

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Acemoglu, D. (2002). Technical change, inequality, and the labor market. Journal of Economic Literature, 40(1), 7-72.
  • Acemoglu, D. & Autor, D. H. (2011). Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings. In Ashenfelter O. and Card D. E. (eds). Handbook of Labor Economics, Vol. 4B, Amsterdam: Elsevier, pp. 1043–1171.
  • Afonso, A. (2019). State-led wage devaluation in Southern Europe in the wake of the Eurozone crisis. European Journal of Political Research, 58(3), 938-959.
  • Autor, D. H. (2015). Why are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 29, 3–30.
  • Autor, D.H., Katz, L.F. & Kearney, M.S. (2006). The polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 96(2): 189–194.
  • Autor, D.H., Levy, F. & Murnane, R. J. (2003). The Skill Content Of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118, 1279–1333.
  • Baccaro, L., & Howell, C. (2017). Trajectories of neoliberal transformation: European industrial relations since the 1970s. Cambridge University Press.
  • Baccaro, L., & Pontusson, J. (2016). Rethinking comparative political economy: the growth model perspective. Politics & Society, 44(2), 175-207.
  • Baldwin, R. (2019). The globotics upheaval: Globalization, robotics, and the future of work. Oxford University Press.
  • Baumol, W. J., Blackman, S. A. B., & Wolff, E. N. (1985). Unbalanced growth revisited: asymptotic stagnancy and new evidence. The American Economic Review, 806-817.
  • Behringer, J., & van Treeck, T. (2022). Varieties of capitalism and growth regimes: the role of income distribution. Socio-Economic Review, 20(3), 1249-1286.
  • Blinder, A. S. (2009). How Many us Jobs Might Be Offshorable? World Economics, 10, 41.
  • Blinder, A. S., & Krueger, A. B. (2013). Alternative measures of offshorability: a survey approach. Journal of Labor Economics, 31(S1), S97-S128.
  • Bohle, D. (2018). European integration, capitalist diversity and crises trajectories on Europe’s Eastern periphery. New Political Economy, 23(2), 239-253.
  • Bohle, D., & Regan, A. (2021). The comparative political economy of growth models: Explaining the continuity of FDI-led growth in Ireland and Hungary. Politics & Society, 49(1), 75-106.
  • Brandolini, A., Rosolia, A., & Torrini, R. (2011). The distribution of employees’ labour earnings in the European Union: Data, concepts and first results. ECINEQ WP, 198.
  • Bulfone, F., & Tassinari, A. (2021). Under pressure. Economic constraints, electoral politics and labour market reforms in Southern Europe in the decade of the Great Recession. European Journal of Political Research, 60(3), 509-538.
  • Buyst, E., Goos, M., & Salomons, A. (2018). Job polarization: an historical perspective. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 34(3), 461-474.
  • David, H., & Dorn, D. (2013). The growth of low-skill service jobs and the polarization of the US labor market. American Economic Review, 103(5), 1553-97.
  • Doeringer, P. B. and Piore, M. J. (1971). Internal Labor Markets and Manpower Analysis. Lexington, MA: DC Heath.
  • Dustmann, C., Ludsteck, J., & Schönberg, U. (2009). Revisiting the German wage structure. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(2), 843-881.
  • Fernández-Macías, E. (2012). Job Polarization in Europe? Changes in the Employment Structure and Job Quality, 1995-2007. Work and Occupations, 39, 157–182.
  • Fernández-Macías, E., & Arranz-Muñoz, J. M. (2020). Occupations and the recent trends in wage inequality in Europe. European Journal of Industrial Relations, 26(3), 331-346.
  • Fernández-Macías, E. & Hurley, J. (2017). Routine-biased technical change and job polarization in Europe. Socio-Economic Review, 15(3): 563–585.
  • Fernández-Macías, E., & Vacas-Soriano, C. (2015). Recent developments in the distribution of wages in Europe. Eurofound.
  • Goos, M., & Manning, A. (2007). Lousy and lovely jobs: The rising polarization of work in Britain. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 89(1), 118-133.
  • Goos M, Manning A & Salomons A (2009). Job polarization in Europe. American Economic Association Papers and Proceeding, 99(2): 58–63.
  • Goos, M., Manning, A. and Salomons, A. (2014). Explaining Job Polarization: Routine-biased Technological Change and Offshoring. The American Economic Review, 104, 2509–2526.
  • Green, F., & Henseke, G. (2021). Europe’s evolving graduate labour markets: supply, demand, underemployment and pay. Journal for Labour Market Research, 55, 1-13.
  • Hein, E., Meloni, W. P., & Tridico, P. (2021). Welfare models and demand-led growth regimes before and after the financial and economic crisis. Review of International Political Economy, 28(5), 1196-1223.
  • Heredero, M. I., Ruesga, S. M., Cachón, E., Pérez Ortiz, L., da Silva, J., Viñas, A. (2019). Instituciones laborales en Europa. Cambios durante la Gran Recesión. Tirant lo Blanch.
  • Herrero, D. (2022). Disentangling the transformation of the German model: The role of firms’ strategic decisions and structural change. Competition & Change, 26(3-4), 357-383.
  • Heyes, J., & Lewis, P. (2014). Employment protection under fire: Labour market deregulation and employment in the European Union. Economic and Industrial Democracy, 35(4), 587-607.
  • Katz, L. F., & Murphy, K. M. (1992). Changes in relative wages, 1963–1987: supply and demand factors. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(1), 35-78.
  • Koch, M., & Fritz, M. (2013). Non-standard employment in Europe: Paradigms, prevalence and policy responses. Springer.
  • Kohler, K., & Stockhammer, E. (2022). Growing differently? Financial cycles, austerity, and competitiveness in growth models since the Global Financial Crisis. Review of International Political Economy, 29(4), 1314-1341.
  • Lindbeck, A., & Snower, D. J. (2001). Insiders versus outsiders. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1), 165-188.
  • López Gallego, J. (2022). Estudios sobre la polarización del mercado de trabajo en economías avanzadas: causas, variedades nacionales y consecuencias distributivas. Tesis doctoral, Universidad Complutense de Madrid.
  • Marlier, E. (eds.). Income and Living conditions in Europe. Eurostat Statistical Books, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.
  • Martins-Neto, A., Mathew, N., Mohnen, P., & Treibich, T. (2021). Is there job polarization in developing economies? A review and outlook. CESifo Working Papers.
  • Murphy, E. C., & Oesch, D. (2018). Is employment polarisation inevitable? Occupational change in Ireland and Switzerland, 1970–2010. Work, Employment and Society, 32(6), 1099-1117.
  • Oesch, D., & Piccitto, G. (2019). The polarization myth: Occupational upgrading in Germany, Spain, Sweden, and the UK, 1992–2015. Work and Occupations, 46(4), 441-469.
  • Oesch, D. & Rodriguez-Menes, J. (2011). Upgrading or polarization? Occupational change in Britain, Germany, Spain and Switzerland, 1990–2008. Socio-Economic Review, 9(3), 503–531.
  • Regan, A., & Brazys, S. (2018). Celtic phoenix or leprechaun economics? The politics of an FDI-led growth model in Europe. New Political Economy, 23(2), 223-238.
  • Sebastian, R. (2018). Explaining job polarisation in Spain from a task perspective. SERIEs, 9(2), 215-248.
  • Sebastian, R., & Biagi, F. (2018). The routine biased technical change hypothesis: a critical review. Spitz-Oener, A. (2006). Technical Change, Job tasks, and Rising Educational Demands: Looking Outside the Wage Structure. Journal of Labor Economics, 24, 235–270.
  • Thelen, K. (2014). Varieties of liberalization and the new politics of social solidarity. Cambridge University Press.
  • Tregenna, F. (2009). Characterising deindustrialisation: An analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(3), 433-466.
  • Williams, M. (2013). Occupations and British wage inequality, 1970s–2000s. European Sociological Review, 29 (4), 841–857.
  • Wright, E. O. (1980). Class and occupation. Theory and Society, 9(1), 177-214.
  • Wright, E. O. & Dwyer, R. E. (2003). The Patterns of Job Expansions in the USA: a Comparison of the 1960s and 1990s. Socio-Economic Review, 1, 289–325.