La reconfiguración de Oriente MedioNuevos realineamientos en un mundo multipolar

Abstract

The Middle East is going through one of the most turbulent times in its history. The Arab Spring, the impact of the pandemic and the Israeli offensive against Hamás have accelerated a process of regional reconfiguration that has been brewing since the turn of the 21st century. The progressive withdrawal of the U.S. towards the Indo-Pacific has allowed China to insert the Middle East into its Belt and Road Initiative. All these transformations herald the slide from a unipolar to a multipolar order, which generates challenges and opportunities for the countries of the region. In this phase, new axes emerge on which the region will gravitate in the coming decades, including connectivity, apolarity and de-escalation. The lifting of the blockade on Qatar, the Abraham Accords between Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, and the re-establishment of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran conf irm the regional powers’ commitment to stability. It remains to be seen whether the 7 October attack and the destruction of Gaza will interrupt this trend or, on the contrary, accelerate it.