El impacto de la guerra de Gaza en Oriente Medio. Riesgos geopolíticos y escenarios de futuro

  1. Ignacio Álvarez-Ossorio
  2. David Hernández
  3. Leticia Rodríguez
Zeitschrift:
Documentos de trabajo (Laboratorio de alternativas)

Datum der Publikation: 2024

Nummer: 234

Art: Arbeitsdokument

Zusammenfassung

The terrorist attacks of 7 October 2023 represent a game changer and have made it clear that the indefinite occupation of the Palestinian territories represents a permanent threat to Israel’s security. The military offensive against Hamas has brought the Gaza Strip to the brink of the greatest humanitarian catastrophe of the last century and has destabilised the Middle East as a whole. The instability has also spread to Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where various proxies of Iran are active and have harassed US troops deployed in the region. The attack also represent a test for EU foreign policy in a delicate period in which the EU is striving to achieve a certain ‘strategic autonomy’ in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In this context, the main risk remains that the war on Gaza could spread to the Middle East as a whole, dragging the region into a conflagration of unpredictable consequences that would also affect the EU and Spain in different ways.

Bibliographische Referenzen

  • Abraham, Y., “Expel all Palestinians from Gaza, recommends Israeli gov’t ministry”, +972 Magazine, October 30, 2023: https://www.972mag. com/intelligence-ministry-gaza-population-transfer/
  • Abusada, M. et alii., “Governing Gaza After the War: Palestinian Debates“, Carnegie Middle East Center, February 9, 2024: https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/02/09/governing-gaza-after-war-palestinian-debates-pub-91605
  • Álvarez-Ossorio, I., ¿Es todavía viable un Estado palestino? Trabas y alternativas al proceso de paz, Documento de Trabajo nº 52/2010, Fundación Alternativas, Observatorio de Política Exterior Española.
  • Amirah-Fernández, H., “EU-MENA relations since the Ukraine War“, Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale, Otober 5, 2023: https:// www.ispionline.it/en/publication/eu-mena-relations-since-the-ukraine-war-146482
  • Benedicto, M.A., “Autonomía Estratégica. ¿Un lugar bajo el sol? Recorrido histórico y político de una ambición necesaria”, Cuadernos de Estrategia, Nº 125, 2022, pp. 83-120.
  • Brown, N. J. y Hamzawy, A., “How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine”, Carnegie Middle East Center, November 17, 2023: https://carnegieendowment. org/2023/11/17/arab-peace-initiative-ii-howarab-leadership-could-design-peace-plan-in-israel-and-palestine-pub-91047
  • Domínguez de Olazábal et alii, “Flujos migratorios en el Mediterráneo: causas, políticas y reforma”, Fundación Alternativas, Documento de Trabajo Opex nº 102/2020: https:// fundacionalternativas.org/publicaciones/flujos-migratorios-en-el-mediterraneo-causas-politicas-y-reforma/
  • Dunne, C. W., “Gaza, the Ruin of US Policy, and a Transformed Middle East”, Arab Center Washington DC Nov 16, 2023: https://arabcenterdc. org/resource/gaza-the-ruin-of-us-policy-and-atransformed-middle-east/
  • Fatafta, M., “Normalizing the Surveillance State—Cybersecurity Cooperation and the Abraham Accords”, MERIP, 307/308 (Summer/ Fall 2023): https://merip.org/2023/09/the-abraham-accords-cybersecurity/
  • Katulis, B., “Five factors to watch in US diplomatic efforts on a possible Israel-Saudi deal”, Middle East Institute, August 10, 2023: https://www.mei.edu/publications/five-factors-watch-us-diplomatic-efforts-possible-israel-saudi-deal
  • Kharroub, T., “Lebanon’s Political Forces Oppose a War with Israel”, Arab Center Washington DC. February 9, 2024: https://arabcenterdc. org/resource/lebanons-political-forces-oppose-a-war-with-israel/
  • Ocampo, J. E., “Los Acuerdos de Abraham y la reconfiguración geopolítica regional ¿‘paz por paz’?”, Revista de Pensamiento Estratégico y Seguridad CISDE, 7 (2), 2022.
  • Ulrichsen, K. C., “Saudi-Israeli Normalization and the Hamas Attack”, Arab Center Washington DC, January 11, 2024: https:// arabcenterdc.org/resource/saudi-israeli-normalization-and-the-hamas-attack/