El "dividendo de la paz"Defensa, economía y gasto social en la España de la segunda mitad del siglo XX

  1. José Jurado Sánchez 1
  1. 1 Universidad Complutense de Madrid
    info

    Universidad Complutense de Madrid

    Madrid, España

    ROR 02p0gd045

Revista:
Investigaciones de Historia Económica = Economic History Research

ISSN: 1698-6989

Año de publicación: 2018

Volumen: 14

Número: 2

Páginas: 118-126

Tipo: Artículo

DOI: 10.1016/J.IHE.2016.07.018 DIALNET GOOGLE SCHOLAR lock_openAcceso abierto editor

Otras publicaciones en: Investigaciones de Historia Económica = Economic History Research

Resumen

Se pretende determinar si en la España de la segunda mitad del siglo XX se produjeron los beneficios económicos y sociales derivados de la reducción del gasto militar producidos en otros países. Para ello se han construido series a precios constantes del PIB, de la FBCF, del saldo presupuestario, la deuda, el gasto militar, de bienes preferentes como la educación y la sanidad y del resto de los principales gastos sociales. La comparación de ellas muestra que el dividendo de la paz se dio esencialmente a partir de la instauración de la democracia. Entre 1950-1975 y 1976-2000, el peso de la defensa respecto al gasto del Estado y la riqueza nacional se redujo 3 y 2 veces, respectivamente, mientras que el de los gastos sociales, especialmente el de la sanidad y la educación, se multiplicó por varias veces.

Referencias bibliográficas

  • Aguilar Olivencia, M., El ejército español durante el franquismo: un juicio desde dentro (1999), Akal Madrid
  • Akitoby, B., Clements, B., Gupta, S., Inchauste, G., Public spending, voracity, and Wagner's Law in developing countries (2006) European Journal of Political Economy, 22, pp. 908-924
  • Aschauer, D.A., Is public expenditure productive? (1989) Journal of Monetary Economics, 24, pp. 171-188
  • Baran, P.A., Sweezy, P.M., Monopoly capital (1966), Monthly Review Press Nueva York
  • Bhargava, A., Jamison, D.T., Lau, L.J., Murray, C.J., Modelling the effects of health on economic growth (2001) Journal of Health Economics, 20, pp. 423-440
  • Barro, R.J., Government Spending in a simple model of endogenous growth (1990) Journal of Political Economy, 5, pp. S103-S125
  • Barro, R.J., Redlick, C.J., Macroeconomic effects from government purchases and taxes (2011) Quaterly Journal of Economics, 126 (1), pp. 51-102
  • Brauer, J., Webster, L.L., Galbraith, J.K., (2004) The evolving economics of war and peace, Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS), , http://www.eolss.net, Eolss Publishers, UNESCO París [consultado 2 Oct 2015] Disponible en:]
  • Brauner, J., Military spending and democracy (2015) Defence and Peace Economics, 26-4, pp. 409-423
  • Brömmelhörster, J., El dividendo de la paz: ¿qué abarcaría este concepto? (1997) Cuadernos Bakeaz, 21
  • Camps, E., The impact of investment in education on economic development: Spain in comparative perspective, 1860-2000 (2013), pp. 1-19. , Pompeu Fabra University Working Papers 1373
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch, N.P., Bjerkholt, O., Military spending and economic growth in the OECD countries (1984) Journal of Peace Research, 21, pp. 361-373
  • Cappelen, A., Gleditsch, N.P., Bjerkholt, O., Guns, butter, and growth: The case of Norway (1992) Defense, welfare, and growth, pp. 61-80. , S. Chan A. Mintz Perspectives and Evidence Routledge, Londres y Nueva York
  • Caputo, D., New perspectives on the public policy implications of defense and welfare expenditures (1975) Policy Science, 6, pp. 423-446
  • Carreras, A., Prados, L., Rosés, J.R., Renta y riqueza (2005) Estadísticas históricas de España, siglos XIX-XX., , A. Carreras X. Tafunell Fundación BBVA Bilbao
  • Clayton, J.L., The fiscal limits of the warfare-welfare state: Defense and welfare spending in the United States since 1900 (1976) Western Political Quaterly, 29, pp. 364-383
  • Comín, F., Díaz, D., Renta y riqueza (2005) Estadísticas históricas de España, siglos XIX-XX, pp. 873-964. , A. Carreras X. Tafunell Fundación BBVA Bilbao
  • Ministerio de Hacienda (2000), IGAE Madrid
  • Currais, L., Rivera, B., Income variation and health expenditure: Evidence for OECD countries (1999) Review of Development Economics, 3 (3), pp. 258-267
  • Chan, S., Military expenditures and economic performance (1987) World military expenditures and arms transfers, , U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency Washington
  • Chan, S., Mintz, A., (1992) Defense, welfare, and growth, , Routledge Londres
  • Deger, S., Sen, S., Military expenditure, spin-off and economic development (1983) Journal of Development Economics, 13 (1983), pp. 67-83
  • De Grasse, R.W., Mcguinness, E., Ragen, W., Military expansion, economic decline (1983), Council on Economic Priorities Nueva York
  • De la Fuente, A., Doménech, R., El nivel educativo de la población en España y sus regiones: 1960-2011 (2015), BBVA Research [Documento de trabajo 15/07]
  • Díaz-Fuentes, D., Revuelta, J., La relación a largo plazo entre crecimiento económico y gasto público en España (1850-2000) (2013) Investigaciones de Historia Económica, 9, pp. 32-42
  • Domke, W., Eichenberg, R., Kelleher, C., The illusion of choice: Defense and welfare in advanced industrial democracies, 1948-1978 (1983) American Political Science Review, 77, pp. 19-34
  • Dritsakis, N., Defense spending and economic growth: An empirical investigation for Greece and Turkey (2004) Journal of Policy Modeling, 26, pp. 249-264
  • Dunne, J.P., Economic effects of military spending in developing countries: A survey (1996) The peace dividend, pp. 439-464. , N.P. Gleditsch O. Bjerkholt Å. Cappelen R.P. Smith J.P. Dunne North Holland Ámsterdam
  • Dunne, J.P., Uye, M., Military expenditure and development (2009) The global arms trade., pp. 293-305. , A. Tan Routledge Londres
  • Dunne, J.P., Nikoladiou, E., Defence spending and economic growth in the EU15 (2012) Defence and Peace Economics, 23 (6), pp. 537-548
  • Eichenberg, R., The expenditure and revenue effects of defense spending in the Federal Republic of Germany (1984) Policy Sciences, 16, pp. 391-411
  • Fernández Carbajal, A., La política de vivienda en España durante el franquismo (2003) Estudios Territoriales, 138, pp. 639-653
  • Fernández Carbajal, A., Veinticinco años de política de vivienda en España (1976-2001): una visión panorámica (2004) Tribuna de Economía. Instituto de Comercio Exterior, 816, pp. 145-161
  • Galbraith, J.K., The affluent society (1958), Houghton Mifflin Company Boston
  • Garfinkel, M.R., Domestic politics and international conflict (1994) American Economic Review, 84 (5), pp. 1294-1309
  • Gifford, B., Why no trade-off between “guns and butter”? Armed forces and social spending in the advanced industrial democracies, 1960-1993 (2006) American Journal of Sociology, 2, pp. 473-509
  • Gist, J., Stability and competition in budgetary theory (1982) American Political Science Review, 76, pp. 859-872
  • Glewwe, P., Jacoby, H.G., Economic growth and the demand for education: Is there a wealth effect? (2004) Journal of Development Economics, 74-1, pp. 33-51
  • Goldsmith, B.E., Defense effort and institutional theories of democratic peace and victory: Why try harder? (2007) Security Studies, 16 (2), pp. 189-222
  • Gómez Olmeda, J.A., Las fuerzas armadas en el estado franquista: participación política, influencia presupuestaria y profesionalización, 1939-1975 (1988), Ediciones El Arquero Madrid
  • González Páramo, M., Onrubia, J., (1992) El gasto público en vivienda en España, 120-121, pp. 189-217. , Hacienda Pública Española
  • Griffin, L.J., Devine, J.A., Wallace, M., Monopoly capital, organized labor and military expenditures: Military keynesianism in the United States, 1949-1976 (1982) American Journal of Sociology, 88, pp. S113-S153
  • Hansson, P., Henrekjson, M., A new framework for testing the effect of government spending on growth and productivity (1994) Public Choice, 81, pp. 381-401
  • Hanushek, E.A., Woessmann, L., (2010) The economics of international differences in educational achievement, 492, pp. 45-58. , IZA Discussion Paper n°
  • Heo, U., The political economy of defense spending around the world (1999), Edwin Mellen Lewiston, Nueva York
  • Herbert, P., Petersen, K., Mass warfare and the welfare: State causal mechanisms and effects (2014), ZeS-Working Paper n.° 02
  • Hollenhorst, J., Ault, G., An alternative answer to who pays for defense (1971) American Political Science Review, 65, pp. 760-763
  • Hill, K.Q., Domestic politics, international linkages, and military expenditures (1978) Studies in Comparative International Development, 13 (1), pp. 38-59
  • Howitt, P., Health, human capital and economic growth: A schumpeterian perspective (2005) Health and economic growth: Findings and policy implications., , G. López-Casasnovas B. Rivera L. Currais MIT Pres Cambridge, Massachusets
  • Huisken, R., Armaments and development (1982) Militarization and arms production., , H. Tuomi R. Vayrinen St. Martin Press Nueva York
  • Jones, B.D., Public policies and economic growth in the American states (1990) Journal of Politics, 52, pp. 219-233
  • Jurado Sánchez, J., ¿Se financió la defensa a costa del gasto social y la economía en el siglo XX? El dilema cañones-mantequilla (2012) Hacienda Pública Española, 203-4, pp. 89-117
  • Kidron, M., Western capitalism since the war (1968), Weidenfeld y Nicolson Londres
  • Kollias, C., Paleologou, S.M., Budgetary trade-offs between defence, education and social spending in Greece (2011) Applied Economics Letters, 18, pp. 1071-1075
  • Lebovic, J.H., Spending priorities and democratic rule in Latin America (2001) Journal of Conflict Resolution, 45 (4), pp. 427-452
  • Lin, E., Ali, H., Lu, Y.-L., Does military spending crowd out social welfare expenditures? Evidence from a panel of OECD countries (2015) Defence and Peace Economics, 26-1, pp. 33-48
  • Lindgren, G., Review essay: Armaments and economic performance in industrialized market economies (1984) Journal of Peace Research, 21, pp. 375-387
  • McNair, E., Murdoch, C., Sandler, T., Growth and defense: Pooled estimates for the NATO Alliance, 1951-1988 (1995) Southern Economic Journal, 61 (1), pp. 846-860
  • Mintz, A., Guns vs. butter: A disaggregated analysis (1989) American Political Science Review, 83, pp. 1285-1293
  • Mintz, A., Huang, C., Defense expenditures, economic growth, and the “peace dividend” (1990) American Political Science Review, 84, pp. 1283-1293
  • Mintz, A., Huang, C., Guns versus butter: The indirect link (1991) American Journal of Political Science, 3, pp. 738-757
  • Mintz, A., Stevenson, R.T., Defense expenditures, economic growth, and the peace ‘dividend’: A longitudinal analysis of 103 countries (1995) Journal of Conflict Resolution, 39-2, pp. 283-305
  • Mok, J.W., Duval, R.D., Guns, butter, and debt: Balancing spending tradeoffs between defense, social programs, and budget deficits (1992) The political economy of military spending in the United States., pp. 196-212. , A. Mintz Routledge Nueva York y Londres
  • Morrow James, D., Arms versus allies: Trade-offs in the search for security (1993) International Organization, 47 (2), pp. 207-233
  • Mosley, H., The arms race: Economic and social consequences (1985), Lexington Books Lexington, MA
  • Nardinelli, C., Ackerman, G.B., Defense expenditures and American capitalism: A note (1976) Armed Forces and Society, 3-1, pp. 13-16
  • Peroff, K., The warfare-welfare tradeoff: Health, public aid, and housing (1976) Journal of Sociology and Social Welfare, 4, pp. 366-381
  • Peroff, K., Podolak-Warren, M., Does spending on defence cut spending on health? A time-series analysis of the U.S. economy, 1929-1974 (1979) British Journal of Political Science, 9, pp. 21-39
  • Prados de la Escosura, L., El progreso económico de España (1850-2000) (2003), Fundación BBVA Bilbao
  • Pryor, F.L., Public expenditures in communist and capitalist nations (1968), G. Allen and Unwin LTD Londres
  • Ram, R., Defence expenditure and growth (1995) Handbook of defense economics., pp. 191-203. , K. Hartley T. Sandler Elsevier Amsterdam
  • Rasler, K., Thompson, W.R., Defense burdens, capital formation, and economic growth (1988) Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32 (1), pp. 61-86
  • Russett, B.M., Who pays for defense? (1969) American Political Science Review, 63, pp. 412-426
  • Russett, B.M., Defense expenditures and national well-being (1982) American Political Science Review, 76, pp. 767-777
  • Russett, B.M., Oneal, J., Triangulating peace: Democracy, interdependence, and international organizations (2001), W. W. Norton Nueva York
  • Sabaté Domingo, O., The political determinants of military spending in the long-term. Spain as a case study (1850-2009) (2013), IV Encuentro Asociación Española de Historia Económica Pamplona
  • Samuelson, P., Economics: An introductory analysis (1948), McGraw Hill Nueva York
  • Solow, R., A contribution to the theory of economic growth (1956) Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1, pp. 65-94
  • Sprout, H., Sprout, M., The dilemma of rising demands and insufficient resources (1968) World Politics, 20 (4), pp. 660-693
  • Van Zon, A., Muisken, J., Health as a principal determinant of economic growth (2005) Health and Economic Growth: Findings and Policy Implications., , B. López-Casasnovas B. Rivera L. Currais MIT Press Cambridge, Massachusets
  • Ward, M.D., Davis, R.D., Sizing up the peace dividend: Economic growth and military spending in the United States, 1948-1990 (1992) American Political Science Review, 86-3, pp. 748-755
  • Wilensky, H., The welfare state and equality (1975), University of California Press Berkeley
  • Yildirim, J., Sezgin, S., Defence, education and health expenditures in Turkey, 1924-96 (2002) Journal of Peace Research, 39 (5), pp. 569-580