Oil price pass-through into inflation in Spain at national and regional level
- Ligia Topan
- Miguel Jerez
- César Castro
- Andrés Barge-Gil
ISSN: 1869-4195
Année de publication: 2020
Volumen: 11
Número: 4
Pages: 561-583
Type: Article
D'autres publications dans: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association
Résumé
Oil price showed sharp fluctuations in recent years which revived the interest in its effect on inflation. In this paper, we discuss the relationship between oil price and inflation in Spain, at national and regional levels, and making the distinction between energy and non-energy inflation. To this end, we fit econometric models to measure the effect of oil price shocks on inflation and to predict them under different scenarios. Our results show that almost half of the volatility of changes in total inflation is explained by changes in oil price. As could be expected, the energy component of inflation drives this effect. We also find that, under the most likely scenarios, 1-year ahead total inflation will be moderate, with relevant differences across regions.
Information sur le financement
Financeurs
-
Proyectos de investigacion Santander-UCM
- Grant PR26/16-20270
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Universidad Complutense de Madrid
- CT17/17-CT18/17 FPI scholarship