Modelling and forecasting a balance of payments

  1. Río Paramio, Raquel del
  2. Treadway, Arthur B.
Revista:
Documentos de Trabajo (ICAE)

ISSN: 2341-2356

Any de publicació: 1996

Número: 7

Pàgines: 1-22

Tipus: Document de treball

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Altres publicacions en: Documentos de Trabajo (ICAE)

Resum

This paper reports on the development of methods for modelling and forecasting a complete national Balance of Payments (BP), employing aD extended versíoD of the Box and Jenkins approach to time series analysis. The full BP is treated, findings on the properties typical of such data are described, new approaches to modelling capital flow variables, net flow (balance) variables and the official foreign exchange reserves tlow are offered. Illustrations are taleen from the authors'study for the Spanish case with monthly data.

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