Modelling and forecasting a balance of payments
- Río Paramio, Raquel del
- Treadway, Arthur B.
ISSN: 2341-2356
Ano de publicación: 1996
Número: 7
Páxinas: 1-22
Tipo: Documento de traballo
Outras publicacións en: Documentos de Trabajo (ICAE)
Resumo
This paper reports on the development of methods for modelling and forecasting a complete national Balance of Payments (BP), employing aD extended versíoD of the Box and Jenkins approach to time series analysis. The full BP is treated, findings on the properties typical of such data are described, new approaches to modelling capital flow variables, net flow (balance) variables and the official foreign exchange reserves tlow are offered. Illustrations are taleen from the authors'study for the Spanish case with monthly data.