Trade Barriers and Spanish ExportsEl Impacto de las Barreras Comerciales sobre las Exportaciones Españolas

Résumé

The aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to analyze the potential effects of the main risks that Spanish exporters have been exposed to since the global financial crisis using rm-level data and microeconometric techniques. This thesis is divided into three chapters, exploring in each one of the factors which have been detrimental to Spanish trade. Firstly, Chapter 1 analyzes the effect taribarriers on the exports of Spanish goods and finds that higher taris reduce exports levels through extensive and intensive margins. Speciffically, a 1 % tariff reduces the probability of exportingto a specific market by nearly 0.08 pp. on average, while exported values diminish by around0.9 %. The chapter also quantifies the effect of tariffs applied by the United States on speci ccountry-product markets within the European Union in 2019 as a consequence of illegal aids for the plane maker Airbus. In this case, as tariffs were applied only to certain markets, trade diversion was easier for American firms, and as a consequence a 1 % tariff resulted in a 3.5 % reduction of American imports from Spain. Secondly, Chapter 2 explores the impact of Brexit related uncertainty on Spanish rms' trade with this market and with alternative countries. After the 2016 Brexit referendum there was a high degree of uncertainty about the nal shape of bilateral trade relations between the European Union and the United Kingdom, especially for particular sectors and rms. Within this context, the chapter explores whether a fraction of Spanish trade with the United Kingdom was diverted to other markets after the referendum. The results indicate a close to full trade diversion, mostly to other European countries, for those firms more exposed to that particular market (above 10 %). Given a particular share, trade diversion is more limited for imports relative to exports and for big companies. Lastly, Chapter 3 explores the effects of bank lending shocks on the export behavior of Spanish rms. Credit supply shocks have big effects on both the intensive margin (amount exported) and the extensive margin of trade (decision to export).